Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam
"Despite working hard, we were not successful, it does not mean that they (BJP) should not work after forming the government. All the schemes including OPS, Chiranjeevi that have taken the state on a new pace of development in the past five years, should be taken forward (by the new government)," said Ashok Gehlot on Sunday, 3 December, hours before he tendered his resignation as the chief minister of Rajasthan.
The state has continued its 'rivaaj' of flipping the government every five years with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagging a clear majority of 115 seats. The Congress, meanwhile, is a distant second with 69 seats.
Despite being the most popular choice for being the CM according to all polls in the run up to the elections, the Congress lost the battle against the BJP, even though the latter has not yet projected a CM face.
So, why did the Congress lose? Analysing six key reasons:
1.Party Infighting
The infighting between the Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot camps weighed heavily on the voters of the state. Many felt that the two big leaders were constantly embroiled in the race for the chair and were busy outsmarting each other.
Even though both leaders eventually claimed to have resolved their issues, the proclaimed resolution came a little too close to the elections for it to change the voters' perspective.
Even as recent as May, Pilot continued his attacks on Gehlot in his week-long Jan Sangharsh Yatra.
The infighting within the party was weaponised by the BJP as its primary poll plank by portraying the two leaders as 'hungry for power'.
2: Resentment Against Local Candidates
One big aftermath of the fallout between the two leaders was the tickets being given to many candidates based on their loyalty to the respective camps despite anti-incumbency against them in their constituencies.
Political experts say that several leaders were given tickets despite their winnability being uncertain.
Voters on the ground did not have resentment against Gehlot per say. The 'Mehangai Rahat' camps, free health treatments up to 25 lakhs under Chiranjeevi Yojana, and subsidised LPG cylinders were hit schemes for most voters of Rajasthan. The resentment, however, was against the local candidates and was based on local issues.
3. Corruption and Scandals
Along with infighting, the government was marred by corruption in local governance across several constituencies. At the state level, the government battled with scandals like the 'red diary' controversy and paper leak scams.
Scores of paper leaks for competitive government exams made the government extremely unpopular among the youth, with many associated with the party being probed by investigating agencies.
The BJP made corruption and paper leak nexus one of its key election pitches.
4. BJP's Focussed Seat-Wise Strategies
The fielding of central heavyweight MPs like Kirodi Lal Meena, Baba Balaknath, Rajyavardhan Rathore, and Diya Kumari worked wonders for the BJP with all winning with massive margins.
The party not only fielded them in seats which were considered traditionally safe for it, but also in seats where the sitting MLAs were facing strong anti-incumbency.
The BJP made sure that it does as much damage as possible by weaponising local issues to flare the anti-incumbency further.
5. Polarisation
Along with the corruption allegations, the BJP made issues like the murder of Kanhaiya Lal in Udaipur over the Nupur Sharma controversy, alleged illegal trading of cows in border regions, and the Junaid-Nasir lynching as key poll planks.
The fielding of BJP MP Ramesh Bidhuri as the election in-charge in Sachin Pilot's Tonk immediately after the Danish Ali controversy, a constituency with a sizeable Muslim population, was seen as a clear attempt to polarise not just Hindu votes but also Gujjar votes that the Congress leader commands.
Moreover, with the candidature of Hindutva hardliners like Balmukund Acharya from Hawa Mahal, Pratap Puri Maharaj from Pokran, and Baba Balak Nath from Tijara worked in the BJP's favour.
Baba Balak Nath, in fact, is the second most popular face to be the CM according to a recent survey by Axis My India.
6.Caste Dynamics
As per the Axis My-India survey, over 62 percent general category voters backed the BJP. At the same time, the survey also showed that significant proportion of Jat and Gujjar votes have also shifted to the BJP.
But there was also significant resentment among other minority voters with crimes against Dalits and Adivasis having increased at an average rate of 22 percent from 2018 to 2022.
The Congress has lost, but in the past six elections, this is the highest number the party has been able to bag while losing. In 2013, it faced its worst defeat with 21 seats.
All eyes are now on the BJP to declare the CM candidate with names of several frontrunners, including Vasundhara Raje, Diya Kumari, Gajendra Shekhawat, and Baba Balak Nath doing the rounds.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)