Just before the deadline for filing nominations, the Congress has announced that Punjab chief minister Charanjit Channi will be contesting the upcoming Assembly elections from Bhadaur in Barnala district in addition to his current seat of Chamkaur Sahib in Rupnagar district.
Since he will be the only Congress candidate to fight from two seats, this may be seen as another step before he gets formally named as the party's chief ministerial candidate.
The Quint had reported on 28 January that this is likely to happen soon.
Now, is Bhadaur a safe seat?
No, not by a long shot.
Congress has won the seat only once in the last 50 years – in 2012.
In 2017, the Congress stood third here, getting just 21 percent of the vote. The AAP got 45 percent. So, Congress needs a massive swing to win the seat.
What's more, it is one of the only 7 seats that AAP was leading in even in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in which Congress otherwise did well in Punjab.
To summarise, AAP led from Bhadaur even at its lowest point and Congress lost from here even when it was on a high in rest of the state.
That's why Channi seems to have taken a risk, unlike Sukhbir Badal, Bhagwant Mann, Navjot Sidhu and Captain Amarinder Singh, all of whom are contesting from their core area of influence.
So, two questions arise:
Why is Channi contesting from a second seat?
Why Bhadaur and not some other seat?
It must be remembered that in the 2017 Assembly elections, the only Congress candidate to fight on two seats was the party's CM face Captain Amarinder Singh. He contested from the then chief minister Parkash Singh Badal's seat Lambi besides his own pocket borough of Patiala.
Some of Channi's reasons in contesting from a second seat are similar to Captain's. But some are different. And in these lie the answers to our two questions.
1. Taking the Fight to the Opposition's Turf
Though Captain lost from Lambi in 2017, by contesting against senior Badal he did send the signal that the Congress is still the main Opposition against the increasingly unpopular Badal family. Remember, at that time the AAP was competing with Congress for that space.
With the same intent, AAP's Jarnail Singh contested from Lambi and Bhagwant Mann from Sukhbir Badal's seat Jalalabad in that election.
Channi, however, is in a slightly different position. He isn't a challenger like Captain was in 2017, he is the CM.
But he is taking the battle to his opponents' turf. In this case, the Aam Aadmi Party.
Bhadaur was won by AAP last time. It falls under the Lok Sabha constituency of AAP's CM candidate Bhagwant Mann.
It is among the 7 Assembly segments that AAP was leading on in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The remaining 6 segments are all in the vicinity of Bhadaur.
In an indirect sense it is also a turf of two other opponents: Captain Amarinder Singh and Navjot Sidhu.
After the 1857 revolt, the independent princely state of Bhadaur was brought under the control of the Patiala royal family. The royal family, of which Captain is the current head, has roots in Mehraj, less than 30 km from Bhadaur. The family is from the Sidhu clan, of which Navjot Sidhu is also a part.
Of course it is in a very indirect sense both these leaders have a connection in Bhadaur.
Most probably this didn't have any bearing on Channi's decision to contest. It seems to be aimed more at AAP and other factors discussed below.
2. Weaving a Pan-Dalit Identity for Himself
Punjab's Dalits can be grouped into two big clusters: Chamar, Ravidasi, Ramdasia and Ad Dharmi forming one cluster and Mazhabi Sikhs and Balmiki forming the second cluster.
According to Professor Surinder S Jodhka, the two clusters form 41.59 percent and 41.9 percent of Punjab's Dalit population respectively.
The first cluster has had better access to education, financial resources and representation in government as compared to the second cluster. Politically, the two sections have tended to vote differently.
The first cluster has tended to be more supportive of the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party. On the other hand, Mazhabis have been more amenable to the Akali Dal than the first section.
Channi is a Ramdasia, therefore, from the first category. His seat Chamkaur Sahib has a high concentration of the first cluster of Dalits and lesser numbers of the second cluster.
In Bhadaur, Mazhabi Sikhs are slightly more numerous than Ravidasi, Ramdasia and Chamars. Therefore contesting from here is Channi's way of trying to gain support across Dalit categories.
A related factor is region. In Malwa, Mazhabi Sikhs and Hindu Balmikis form the majority among Dalits while in the Doaba region, the majority are Ravidasis, Ramdasia and Chamars.
Had Channi contested from a reserved seat in the Doaba region, it would have sent the signal to Mazhabis that his aim is to consolidate only Ravidasis, Ramdasis and Chamars.
But that's only one reason why a seat in Malwa was important.
3. Trying to Boost Congress in Malwa
Another reason is that Congress doesn't have many big leaders contesting from Malwa.
In Majha it has a very strong batting line-up with Punjab Congress chief Navjot Sidhu, working president Sukhwinder Danny Bandala, deputy chief ministers Sukhjinder Randhawa and OP Soni, senior cabinet ministers Tript Rajinder Bajwa, Sukhbinder Sarkaria and Aruna Chaudhary and former Punjab Congress chief Partap Singh Bajwa all contesting from the region.
In Doaba it has fewer big faces like Pargat Singh, Sangat Singh Gilzian, Rana Gurjit and Sukhpal Khaira but the party is banking on the high Dalit and Hindu population there.
It is in Malwa - the biggest region accounting for 69 out of Punjab's 117 seats - where the Congress is said to be at its weakest.
Though Channi's existing seat Chamkaur Sahib is technically in Malwa, it is actually part of the smaller Powadh region in South Eastern Punjab. Therefore, it isn't part of Malwa's heartland, like Bhadaur which is in central Malwa.
The Congress couldn't have afforded to allow AAP and SAD to dominate Malwa, therefore Channi's entry in Bhadaur is aimed at countering that possibility.
4. This is The Only Region Congress Can Gain From
In 2017, Congress had peaked in Majha, winning 22 out of 25 seats and it is now likely to incur significant losses here. While it hopes to gain a bit in Doaba, it may not be able to compensate for the losses it may face in Majha and parts of Malwa.
The only areas the Congress can gain are the areas won by AAP in 2017 - districts like Barnala, Mansa, Faridkot.
Barnala, in which Bhadaur falls, and Mansa are the only two districts in which the Congress failed to win a single seat.
Among Bhadaur and the 7 seats that it touches: Mansa, Sunam, Barnala, Mehal Kalan, Nihal Singhwala, Rampura Phul and Maur, the Congress had won only one - Rampura Phul.
Three of these are reserved seats: Bhadaur, Mehal Kalan and Nihal Singhwala.
Other reserved seats in the vicinity that the Congress lost include Jagraon, Raikot, Bathinda Rural, Budhlada and Dirba.
This 12 seats, especially the 8 reserved seats, are an important cluster where the Congress hopes to make gains to offset some of the losses it may face.
However, this is easier said than done.
Many of the AAP MLAs from these seats are now in the Congress so the party may not be in a great position to capitalise on the resentment against them.
Also, if the party lost these seats during the 'wave' of 2017, it will be difficult for it to turn things around five years later when it is facing some anti-incumbency.
Even if it manages to increase support among Dalits due to Channi, its support among Jatt Sikhs - who are dominant in these areas - has only gone down.
5. Sends the Signal that this is Channi's Election
Though Channi has worked hard to reach where he has in his over three decade long political career, he has had a few lucky breaks.
He became Leader of the Opposition in 2015 as a consensus candidate following differences between the Captain and Bajwa factions.
Then again in 2021, differences between Captain, Sidhu and Sukhjinder Randhawa factions saw Channi become the chief minister.
Known to be a superstitious man with a great belief in luck, Channi has taken a huge risk. If he loses from both seats and Congress loses the elections, he could pay the price for that. If he loses both seats and Congress wins the election, it would be advantage Navjot Sidhu. But if he somehow manages to rescue Congress in Malwa and make it the single largest party, it would be a significant personal win for Channi.
Will luck favour Channi this time?
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