Totally Off-the-Mark to Bang-On: How Accurate Were the Exit Polls for 5 States?

Elections 2023: Which exit polls got their predictions right for MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, & Mizoram?

The results for the five state Assembly election 2023 came on expected lines for some states like Telangana, while the mandate for other states Chhattisgarh raised eyebrows.

Exit polls, which are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends, gave out differing predictions when they were released on 30 November. When the final results were declared on 3 December, some pollsters' numbers proved to be correctly forecasted and others' prophesies appeared to be totally off the mark.

So, which exit polls were accurate for which state? Let’s take a look.

Madhya Pradesh

The BJP secured 163 seats in MP while Congress could only win 66. Bharat Adivasi Party won the remaining 1 seat.

• CVoter got their forecast completely wrong, as they predicted Congress will form the government with113-137 seats.

• India Today-Axis My India gave the closest prediction with respect to the BJP's number in MP. Their exit poll gave a majority to the BJP with the seat range falling between 140-162. India Today-Axis MyIndia, however, overestimated the Congress' performance by predicting that the party would get anywhere between 68 and 90 seats.

• News24-Today’s Chanakya got it right to the extent that they predicted a decisive win for the BJP.

• Republic P-Marq-Matrize also predicted a clear BJP victory in the state but couldn't get the numbers right. They, too, overestimated the Congress' performance by predicting the party would come at a close second by securing 97-107 seats.

Rajasthan

Rajasthan's tradition of changing government continued with these elections. The BJP will form the government with 115 seats displacing the current Congress government who could only bag 69 seats. Other smaller parties and independents won 13 seats in total.

• Exit poll prediction by India Today-Axis My India was off the mark as they predicted that the Congress would emerge as the single largest party. The poll wrongly predicted that the BJP would come at a close second by winning 80-100 seats

• Republic’s P-Marq-Matrize was spot on with its prediction that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party winning 115-130 seats. The actual Congress seat tally of 69 was also within the ballpark of the estimated range of 65-75 put forth by this pollster.

• C-Voter was right in its prediction that the BJP will win with a clear mandate. Their estimate of 104 seats for BJP was 11 seats less than the saffron party's actual tally. Their estimate for Others was almost correct.

• News24-Today’s Chanakya overestimated the Congress party’s performance by predicting the party would secure 107 seats and form the government.

Telangana

The Congress won a majority 64 assembly seats in the 119-member Telangana assembly, while the BRS bagged 39 seats. The BJP and AIMIM secured 8 and 7 seats respectively.

• Exit poll projections by CVoter were close to accurate as their poll tallies aligned with the actual election results. They predicted that the Congress would enjoy a comfortable lead over the BRS by putting the estimated range for the party between 49-65 seats. The actual tally of BRS also fell in the range predicted by CVoter.

• Republic TV's P-Marq and Matrize survey overestimated BRS's performance in the state polls as they predicted 46-56 seats for the BRS. However, their estimated range for the Congress proved to be correct.

• News24's Today's Chanakya got their estimates right to the extent that they gave a clear mandate to the Congress with 71 seats.

• CNN's Jan Ki Baat got their estimated range right as they predicted Congress lead over the BRS with 48-64 seats. However, the channel overestimated BRS’s performance by predicting that the party’s seats would fall between 40 and 55.

Chhattisgarh

In the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly, the BJP crossed the majority mark by securing 54 seats while the Congress was pushed to a distant second place with only 35 seats. The Gondvana Gantantra Party (GGP) also managed to secure one seat.

• C-Voter’s seat estimates for both Congress and BJP were far off from the actual results. It predicted a victory for Congress by estimating the party would win 41-53 seats while BJP will secure 36-48 seats

• India Today-Axis My India's estimates were similar to that of C-Voter’s as it, too, predicted a Congress victory in the state. It predicted a narrow lead for Congress while in reality the BJP secured an emphatic win in the state.

• News24-Today’s Chanakya overestimated the Congress’ performance by forecasting that the party will win with a clear mandate of 57 seats. They estimated that the BJP will come at a distant second by securing only 33 seats

• Republic’s P-Marq and Matrize ,too, got their exit polls for Chhattisgarh, completely wrong. They also overestimated Congress’ performance. Their estimate for the Congress was a majority range of 44-52, but the party managed to secure only 35 seats.

Mizoram

The Zoram People’s Movement ousted the incumbent Mizo National Front (MNF) by bagging 27 seats in Mizoram. The MNF was pushed to the second place with an abysmal 10 seats, while the BJP's tally of 2 seats surpassed the Congress' 1 seat in the 40-member assembly.

• The India Today- My Axis India got their forecast spot on as they predicted a clean sweep by the ZPM. It predicted ZPM would secure between 28 and 35 seats. They, however, underestimated the MNF's tally.

• India TV-CNX overestimated the performance of the MNF by predicting the party would bag between 14-18 seats, while ZPM may only win 12-16. Their predictions were also off the mark concerning the Congress as they estimated that the party would likely get between 8-10 seats.

• Republic’s P-Marq and Matrize exit polls was incorrect its prediction of the MNF forming the government in the state.

• The CVoter got their exit poll wrong, having overestimated the MNF’s performance. CVoter predicted the MNF will emerge as the largest party, winning between 15-21 seats, while the ZPM will manage to secure 12-18 seats.