The Mood of the Nation survey by CVoter and India Today group has predicted a clear majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. This would mean that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be all set to win a third term in office.
If it happens, it would make him only the second PM since Jawaharlal Nehru - India's first PM - to win three Lok Sabha elections in a row.
The Big Numbers
According to the survey, the NDA could win 335 seats, down 18 from 353 in 2019. The INDIA bloc on the other hand could win 166 seats. The Congress could win 71 seats, up 19 from its 2019 tally of 52. If this happens, the Congress would finally be able to have the Leader of Opposition post that had eluded it in the past two elections.
In terms of vote share, the survey predicts a vote share of 45 percent for the NDA and 38 percent for the INDIA bloc. However, the difference is starker if one goes party-wise. The survey predicts a vote share of 40 percent for the BJP and 19 percent for the Congress.
According to the survey, issues like Ram Mandir, abrogation of Article 370 and handling of COVID-19 are working in favour of the government, unemployment remains the main factor going against it.
Region-Wise
The survey predicts a sweep for the NDA in North India and strong performance in the East and West while the Opposition is expected to do well in the South.
In many of the states, the predictions are similar to the 2019 results - such as the BJP's complete or near-complete sweeps in in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand and the Opposition alliance's sweep in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and strong performance in Punjab. The predicted tallies in West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir and Madhya Pradesh are also similar to last time.
The main changes are predicted to take place in the following states:
Maharashtra: INDIA bloc predicted to get 26 seats, as opposed to 7 for the UPA in 2019 and the NDA is predicted to fall by 19 seats from 41 in 2019 to 22.
Uttar Pradesh: NDA is expected to increase its tally from 64 to 72 while the Opposition could go down to just eight.
Bihar: NDA could be down from 39 to 32 and Opposition could increase from one to eight.
Telangana: Congress could go up from three to 10 and BRS could be down from nine to three.
Assam: NDA could go up from 9 to 12 and Congress could be down to two seats from three last time.
Karnataka: Congress could marginally increase from 1 to 4.
Andhra Pradesh could be in for a major turnaround according to the survey. The YSRCP could fall from 22 seats to eight and the TDP could go up to 17 along with allies. It had only three seats in 2019.
Congress is expected to make a minor gain of two seats in Haryana at the BJP's expense.
What Does This Mean? 8 Key Inferences from the Data
Anti-incumbency against the Modi government is almost negligible as a result the BJP is predicted to face only a minor reduction in seats.
However, the BJP is far from achieving what PM Modi announced as the party's 'Mission 370' or the aim of 400 seats for the NDA.
The BJP has made very limited inroads in states where it is weak such as Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and West Bengal. This, despite PM Modi devoting special efforts visiting some of these states, especially in the South.
The Opposition's main gains are in states where it has strong alliances, such as Maharashtra.
The Congress is struggling badly in almost all the states where it is in a direct contest against the BJP, except for minor gains in Karnataka and Haryana.
The Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra has crossed through much of Eastern India but it isn't bringing any gains to the Opposition alliance. Much of the INDIA bloc's tally in the East is courtesy the Trinamool Congress which didn't even take part in the Yatra.
Uttar Pradesh is the strongest state for the BJP and weakest link in the Opposition alliance. Among all the non-Congress parties in the INDIA bloc, SP seems to be struggling the most.
BJP's gains are higher in states where it also has strong regional leaders: UP and Assam.
Is Modi 3.0 Inevitable?
Based on the current data, yes. As per the CVoter survey, the Opposition has already saturated the possible gains from the alliance arithmetic in Maharashtra. The math is no longer in its favour in Bihar due to Nitish Kumar's exit, still they are predicted to gain a few seats.
So long as the Congress does badly in the states it has a direct contest against the BJP and the SP continues to underperform in UP, there is no way that the Opposition can come even close to the NDA.
Only a strong campaign centered around unemployment and livelihood can bring help the Opposition reduce the BJP's lead and bring it below the halfway mark.
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