A war of words recently broke out before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. PM Modi had launched the first attack, terming Mamata "Speedbreaker Didi", claiming that she did not receive his call when he was trying to get in touch with her after Cyclone Fani.
Reacting to Modi’s barb, the West Bengal CM in turn hit back, calling Modi an “expiry PM” and said she does not really consider him to be the prime minister at all.
Has Mamata emerged as the strongest challenger to Modi and the BJP? Does she stand in the way of Modi and a majority in the elections? Veteran journalists Aniek Paul and Devadeep Purohit joined in to discuss this question.
Paul said that Mamata was eyeing a major role in Delhi, in federal politics and said that this had become clear when she had brought together major regional leaders in a meet in West Bengal.
However, Paul pointed out that in order to do that, she needed to protect her turf in the state, where she had 42 seats. Mamata had 34 seats in 2014, but she is clearly trying to win all 42 seats, Paul said.
Has BJP Managed to Make Inroads in West Bengal?
With regard to BJP's expansion in the state and whether they had managed to win the support of the people, Purohit had a few interesting points to make.
Firstly, he said that he had noticed for the first time that people on the street in West Bengal were openly saying they would vote for BJP. Secondly, Purohit said that there is a level of discontent in Bengal against the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which has been in power for eight years. Thirdly, over the last two three years, local elections have shown the BJP emerging as the main Opposition party to the TMC. All of this could mean that in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP's vote share is going to see a rise.
However, Purohit also said that BJP chief Amit Shah's estimate of the BJP winning 23 out of 42 seats is a huge exaggeration and would not happen.
Paul also agreed on this point, saying that there was a very clear trend that the anti-TMC voters were voting for the BJP. He added that the violence that West Bengal has seen in the 2018 panchayat elections is a sign of resistance at ground level. However, he also pointed out that the resistance was also in part due to the infighting within TMC.
Is Mamata's Core Voter Base Intact?
On the topic of Mamata's core voter base, Purohit said that Mamata had been populist over the last few years and was also projecting herself as the sole saviour of the Muslims. That remains a very core area for Mamata and her going after Modi and the BJP was a strategy to consolidate her support among the Muslim voters, Purohit said.
He added that while there was discontent among the rural voters, a large chunk of the Muslim voters had shifted their support from other parties to TMC and Mamata.
Has Mamata Garnered the Support of the Educated Middle Class?
Paul said that he felt that she had tried very hard to make herself but had not been very effective. He pointed out that the youth were still moving out of the state and that she had effectively alienated the industries with her stance.
On the question of whether Mamata was acceptable to all the leaders, Purohit pointed out that she did not want to be the Prime Minister and had chosen to stay in the background, but wanted to be seen as a consensus builder, who had the capability to bring together many of the Opposition parties.
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