The satta (speculation/betting) market in Madhya Pradesh has started ringing warning bells for Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Following the voting on 28 November, the betting rates that have emerged are in favour of the Congress winning a majority.
Satta Market Hints at a Congress Win
Over 75 percent of votes were registered in Madhya Pradesh on 28 November. That is 3 percent more than the previous elections in 2013. This too is being interpreted by experts as an effect of anti-incumbency .
In Indore’s satta market, the Congress is getting an equal price on 116 to 118 seats. This means the speculators believe that the Congress party is most likely to get that many seats. In the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly, a party needs 116 seats for majority.
According to speculators, the BJP is likely to get only 99 to 101 seats. Meaning, according to these numbers Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s BJP government is on the way out.
Congress Had Been Ahead in the Satta Market Since Even Before Polling Began
Satta market trends have not seen a significant change before and after voting. Even a week prior to voting, the speculators had estimated a Congress victory. The satta market’s estimation also says that many Madhya Pradesh ministers are also likely to lose the election.
BJP Team’s Internal Estimation
According to the information obtained on ground, the Congress is improving its performance compared to the previous election. In many districts of Mahakaushal, where there was no Congress seat, this time it is fighting the BJP neck and neck.
According to sources, the BJP’s own on-ground assessment says they will lose a seat or two in every district. There are 53 districts in Madhya Pradesh. In the previous Assembly, the Congress had 58 seats and the BJP had 165.
Congress Ahead Even in Confidential Police Survey
According to sources, the Congress party was estimated to win a majority even according to an intelligence survey report. According to the report, the BJP is facing a huge loss, especially in Gwalior, Bhind, Murray, Neemuch and Jhabua.
Apart from this, compared to urban areas, there is a strong anti-ruling party trend in the villages, which can benefit the Congress.
Intelligence Report’s Findings
According to the BJP’s internal estimate and intelligence sources, the Congress can cross majority with 120 seats and the BJP is expected to get between 95-100 seats.
Anger Over Demonetisation and GST?
Right up until the day of voting, no big issues were seen during this election, but according to experts, farmers and small-business owners are angry at the BJP due to demonetisation and GST.
However, Madhya Pradesh BJP sources believe that there isn’t much resentment in the state against Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan.
Both the BJP and satta speculators are predicting a possible Congress victory in the state after 15 years of BJP rule. The actual results will be out on 11 December, but experts believe that the satta market’s estimates are much more accurate than television and newspaper reports.
(This piece was originally published on Quint Hindi.)
(Translated by Mariam Shaheen.)
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