The results of the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections on Sunday, 3 December, shocked political analysts as the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who fought on multiple fronts, including infighting within the party, has once again proved his connect with the voters.
Chouhan, popularly known as Mama (maternal uncle), has done it, yet again, despite all odds.
The anti-incumbency factor loomed over the BJP resulting in Chouhan being sidelined and central leaders taking command of the elections. However, BJP beat the anti-incumbency factor and has a thumping lead in over 160 seats in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh assembly.
Below are the five factors that contributed to Shivraj's success in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections.
1. Ladli Behna Yojana Shivraj's Hail Mary
On 6 March, CM Chouhan announced a direct cash transfer scheme for the women electorate of Madhya Pradesh, promising them a sum of Rs 1,000, which was subsequently increased to Rs 3,000 to be paid every month.
While the state reeled in debts, CM Chouhan, as per sources, was adamant in the successful implementation of the scheme as his next steps for the welfare of the women.
Under this scheme, around one crore 25 lakh women aged between 23 to 60 years were registered, their bank accounts were opened, and they are receiving an amount of Rs 1,200 per month.
As the state inched closer towards the 2023 elections, CM Chouhan started promoting the scheme with full vigor and pomp, the words 'Ladli Behno' echoed in all of his roadshows, public appearances and meetings.
The trends shown by India Today Axis My India exit polls showed that the women voters sided with the BJP, and there was a major vote swing attributed to this scheme.
2. Shivraj Singh Chouhan's Voter Connect - Everyone's Leader
Chouhan stands as a prominent and well-received figure in Indian politics. Despite not being projected as the BJP's CM candidate, he shouldered the responsibility of spearheading the entire election campaign.
Chouhan has cultivated an image as an inclusive leader, establishing strong connections with the public and leaving an indelible mark on the state's political landscape.
Chouhan, who himself hails from Kirar, an OBC community in MP, helped secure votes from the OBC community along with other marginalised communities like tribals and the Scheduled Castes.
Although he attempted an image makeover with the 'bulldozer actions' which gave him the moniker ‘bulldozer Mama’ he soon reverted to his long-standing image of 'Behnon ka bhai', 'Bachchon ka mama' which had helped him gain the stature that he enjoys today.
3. Coordinated and Constant Campaigning
Even as the BJP promoted the idea of collective leadership led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, Chouhan took charge on the ground displaying his micro-management skills and continuing a parallel campaign focussing mostly on the women voters.
The shift of power from CM Shivraj to the central leadership was viewed as a significant setback for Chouhan's chances in his fifth term. So much so that CM Shivraj was forced to invoke a public dialogue, asking in a slew of his public meetings if Mama should be made the CM or not.
While the two units ran parallel campaigns complementing each other, the saffron party, unlike Congress which failed to drive down issues in public discourse, were able to successfully counter the allegations and build on their own narrative.
4. Scindia Factor: A Major Plus for BJP
While a majority of the BJP's success relied on its welfare schemes, the inclusion of former Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia who defected to BJP in 2020 and CM Chouhan's response to it is also a major factor for BJP's performance in the Gwalior-Chambal region, where Scindia holds his sway.
The Gwalior-Chambal, which comprises 34 seats, sided with the Congress as they won 26/34 seats in the 2018 assembly elections.
This region is the Scindia stronghold, who was at the helm of Congress’ 2018 victory, however, the dynamics changed in 2020 when Scindia's departure from Congress led to the fall of the Kamal Nath-led government.
Subsequent by-elections saw 16 out of these 22 individuals triumphing on BJP tickets, aligning with Scindia's political transition.
The trends in the results of the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections show that the Scindia stronghold has once again sided with him, giving the saffron party a major boost.
Poor Campaign and Divide in Congress
While the issues of corruption, scams and allegations of fraud in multiple government-run schemes were voiced by the Congress, results show that the party failed to drive down these issues in the election debates and thus the electorate.
Congress also looked divided between the two major stalwarts Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, evidence of which also floated in social media.
A video went viral soon after the ticket allocation where former CM Nath was heard asking Congress workers to "go and rip apart the clothes of Diggvijay Singh and his son Jaiwardhan Singh" in response to the workers' complaints over ticket distribution.
The failure of Congress in capitalising on the anti-incumbency sentiments helped BJP retain and gain in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)