Who's Real Sena & NCP?: With Lok Sabha Results, Uddhav & Pawar Settle the Debate

In the Sena vs Sena and NCP vs NCP debate in Maharashtra, Lok Sabha election results largely give a clear verdict.

For the past five years since October 2019, the politics of Maharashtra has undisputedly been the most unstable one.

The split of the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party as allies in 2019, the split of the Shiv Sena in 2022, and the split of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 2023 — the turmoil in the state kept both voters and the parties on the edge.

But what was categorically avoided was any electoral battle that could test waters for parties and their breakaway factions. Precisely why, Maharashtra was one of the key states that all eyes were set on to determine who the 'real Shiv Sena' or the 'real Nationalist Congress Party' is.

The results for the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections largely settled the debate on Tuesday, with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a part of the INDIA bloc winning 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats while the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance won just 17.

But how did the two Shiv Senas and the NCPs actually fare? A look at the performance of the four parties:

Shiv Sena (Shinde) vs Shiv Sena (UBT): A Neck & Neck but Uddhav Has Upper Hand

The two parties that were formed resulting from the split in 2022 were in a direct battle in 11 of the 48 seats in the state. Out of these, Shinde's party won six seats — Buldana, Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai North West, Maval, and Hatkanangle.

The Sena (UBT) bagged the other five — Yavatmal-Washim, Nashik, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South, and Shirdi.

One peculiar battle that ensued was between Shiv Sena (Shinde) candidate Ravindra Waikar who won the Mumbai North-West seat against Sena (UBT)'s Amol Kirtikar by merely 48 votes.

With Shinde's Sena having contested 14 seats and won 7, and Sena (UBT) winning 9 of the 21 it contested, the strike rate of both is somewhat similar.

The vote share of Sena (UBT) is over 16% while the vote share of Sena (Shinde) is ver 13%. If one looks at the 2019 figures, a united Shiv Sena's seat tally stood at 18 while its vote percentage stood at 23.50%.

What has clearly worked in Thackeray's favour this time is the transfer of Congress and NCP votes in several seats that ensured a decent vote share despite the split.

Sharad Pawar Remains NCP's Supreme Leader

What's interesting is the surge in Sharad Pawar's seat share as well as vote share this time compared to the previous two elections.

A united NCP won four seats both in 2014 and 2019.

In the results declared on Tuesday, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Nationalist Congress Party Sharadchandra Pawar (NCPSP) were in a direct fight on two seats out of which both won one each - Baramati and Shirur.

While Sharad Pawar's daughter and three-time MP Supriya Sule retained Baramati in a fight with Ajit Pawar's wife Sunetra, NCPSP leader Amol Kolhe won Shirur.

Sharad Pawar's NCP not only won 3/4 seats the party had won in 2019, it also won five more seats, taking his party's tally to 8 out of the 10 seats it contested.

While NCPSP's vote share is at 10.05%, NCP's vote share is at 3.59%.

The total vote share of a united NCP in 2019, however, was 15.66%.

What the Figures Mean

Several conclusions are clear from the figures of the two parties:

• The two Shiv Senas, though they did not see a rise in their number of seats, both made a statement with their vote share. The combined vote share of the two parties is close to 30%, about 7% more than what they got in 2019 while being united.

• The vote share for Uddhav Thackeray shows that the traditional votes of the Congress and Sharad Pawar did get transferred to the party's candidates.

• For Shinde, a 13% vote share despite contesting and winning lesser seats than Sena UBT is a significant figure, which means his party cannot be written off just yet.

• For Sharad Pawar, the gains have been significant. Even though the vote share is lesser than a united NCP in 2019, Pawar's party also contested less than half of the seats it contested in 2019, given which a vote share of over 10% is significant.

• For Ajit Pawar, the message is clear - Sharad Pawar is the real NCP. His party not only failed to win seats but also the traditional Sena-BJP votes did not get transferred to his candidates in 3/4 seats his party contested.