If you are shell-shocked by the largely one-sided projections of the exit polls, then this might calm your nerves.
The average of all exit polls, or the Poll-of-Polls, has predicted that Uttar Pradesh may end up sending 49 BJP MPs to Parliament. The SP-BSP alliance, that looked like a daunting force on paper, may do far less damage than expected. But here’s what many of us may not have taken into account: the pulse of the people on ground.
Too busy to read? Listen to this instead.
Deadline-driven journalists who have little time to spare, may have missed out on this crucial aspect.
But if you take out time to go ask people on ground “who you voted for”, and if you delve deeper, you’d realise that most people are just not telling the truth. And this is what I realised.
Voters left me feeling that in this election, what they really wanted was casual, free-wheeling, off-the-record charcha (conversation).
‘Swachh’ Bharat: ‘Hum Toilet Mein Thodi Na Rahenge?’
Let me revisit a conversation with a woman from the marginalised Rajbhar community in the Sewapuri assembly segment of the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat. Yes, PM Narendra Modi’s seat. My standard opening question to the mother of five adult unmarried daughters was: “Hawa kiski hai?” (Which way is the wind blowing?).
As expected, the question elicited the safe and seemingly rehearsed response: “Modi ji kee,” (‘Modi wave’)
I asked her about her life during Modi’s rule, whether she had benefited from the cooking gas, free-housing, free health insurance and other schemes. There was instant praise for the prime minister. But her daughters who were listening in, started calling out what they thought, were their mother’s rehearsed replies, and went on to poke holes in PM Modi’s promises and policies. Their critique of the PM’s Ayushman Bharat insurance scheme for the poor seemed well-informed, and when I pointed to their toilet as the hallmark of restoring their ‘dignity’ thanks to Swachh Bharat, they trashed it: “Hum toilet mein thodi na rahenge?” (We can’t live inside the toilet, can we?)
‘After Being Reduced To A Second-Class Citizen, I Will Vote Fearlessly This Time’
When I began rattling off names of probables like Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Priyanka Gandhi, the women critically examined the legacies of these leaders. After an exhaustive chat that lasted almost 2 hours, the mother finally caved. She revealed that she is open to possibilities, and might even consider voting for the Congress. The revelation was strictly made on the condition of anonymity. After all, being hounded by village-level BJP workers, the Sangh and its hydra of affiliates, is unnecessary trouble and the last thing she needs. She closed the conversation with, “Humain isee samaj aur isee gaon main inkee saath rehna hai” (We have to live in the same village and with these very people).
Which brings me to my second most important learning from my travels.
As one Chikankari worker from the Chota Imambara area in Lucknow said to me, “I have lived with fear for the last five years, and I don’t think I can live in fear for the next five (years)”.
“Fear of what?” I asked. “Fear of not being able to live normally, eat what we want to and being reduced to second-class citizens”. He also said, “I will vote bekhauf (fearlessly) in this election.”
‘What If BJP Persecutes Us For Voting Against Them?’
You may argue that this ‘inadequate’ anecdotal evidence doesn’t tally with the projections of ‘credibly and authentically’ gathered data at polling stations. But I would humbly beg to differ.
I feel these elections were high on dissenting emotions. Feelings that have been freely expressed by people in the past elections, but carefully concealed from the mainstream media during these elections.
Another frequently used or abused format on Indian television news is the aam janta kee rai (voice of the people) broadcast, where you rarely come across dissenting voices amid chants of “Modi, Modi, Modi”, by a roving army of ‘trolls’.
In a Dalit basti in urban Saharanpur, Valmiki Dalits share stories about life under Modi’s rule. A garments trader who has transcended the conventional caste profession of rag-picking and sweeping, tells us that he conceals his jaati (caste) because revealing it might adversely affect his business prospects. He is upset about growing social injustice over the last five years, attempts to dilute the rights of Dalits by the tweaks to the Dalit atrocities act, and other crimes against the community. But who will he vote for? He says, “BJP”.
Why There May Be Reason to Doubt the Exit Polls
He offers a convoluted explanation for this baffling choice. “We could be in trouble if the BJP realises that we voted against them. In all probability, it looks like they will hold on to power, and we don’t want to be persecuted for voting against them,” he says. His emphatic “I’ll vote BJP”, despite the plight of his community and his dwarfed social status, proves his helplessness,
It’s these complex conversations and narratives that make me doubt the ‘straightforward’ findings of exit polls, data for which has been gathered on sophisticated gadgets outside polling stations.
This is why, I am willing to stick my neck out and say that I believe these numbers have never been more unreliable.
(Anant Zanane is a Madhya Pradesh-based journalist who was with NDTV for over a decade. He tweets at @anantzanane.)
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