Even as the INDIA bloc is poised to do well in its traditional strongholds in South India, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), may make unexpected breakthroughs in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the exit polls released on Saturday, 1 June, have predicted.
Here's a lowdown:
According to the India Today-Axis My India exit polls, the NDA is predicted to open its account in 2-3 seats in Kerala, whereas ABP CVoter has given 1-3 seats to the BJP-led alliance. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to get 17-19 seats, as per these polls.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led INDIA bloc is expected to win 33-37 seats, whereas the NDA is predicted to get 2-4 seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India poll. ABP CVoter has given 37-39 seats to the INDIA bloc and 0-2 seats to the NDA.
The NDA (BJP and JD(S)) is expected to more or less retain its seats in Karnataka, where the BJP alone swept 25 out of 28 seats in 2019. The alliance is expected to win 23-25 seats, as per ABP CVoter. The Congress, meanwhile, is expected to increase its tally to 3-5.
In Telangana, both the BJP and Congress are expected to gain in seats, whereas the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is facing a rout, according to the exit polls. While India Today-Axis My India has predicted 11-12 seats for the BJP and 4-6 seats for the Congress, ABP CVoter has given 7-9 seats to the BJP and Congress each.
The ruling YSRCP is predicted to face massive losses in Andhra Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections. From 22 seats in 2019, the party is expected to get only 0-4 seats, as per ABP CVoter, and 2-4, according to India Today-Axis My India. The alliance of Telugu Desam Party, Jana Sena Party, and BJP are set to get 21-25 seats.
ABP-CVoter exit polls.
India Today-Axis My India polls.
Today's Chanakya exit polls.
DMK Domination, but BJP To Gain in TN: Exit Polls
The BJP has been making concerted efforts to make inroads in Tamil Nadu, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making at least 9-10 visits to the state this year alone. Despite breaking away from its partner AIADMK last year, the party is predicted to increase its seat share and vote share.
In 2019, the DMK-led alliance swept 38 of 39 seats, leaving the AIADMK-BJP alliance with one seat.
Though the DMK has been in the pole position this time too, the party did face resistance in some regions from its traditional rival AIADMK and the BJP-led NDA in a few seats.
Close contests between the BJP and the DMK were seen in Coimbatore – where BJP state chief Annamalai contested from – Vellore, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari.
This time, the BJP aligned with Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which traditionally represents the Vanniyar community, constituting 12% to 15% of the population. The alliance aimed to make breakthroughs in the northern parts of Tamil Nadu.
In the run-up to the elections, the BJP has been campaigning against the Dravidian parties, especially the DMK, accusing them of being "anti-Hindu."
Most exit polls also projected a steep fall in the vote share of the AIADMK, which could have benefited the BJP.
NDA May Retain Seats in Karnataka: Exit Polls
Karnataka has always been of importance to the BJP's electoral strategy in South India. It won 25 out of 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, leaving the Congress and JD(S) with one seat each.
This time, several pre-poll surveys had predicted an erosion of BJP seats in Karnataka, especially after the state saw the comeback of the Congress government just a year ago.
If the exit polls are to go by, while the Congress would marginally improve its seat share from one to three seats, the NDA – which now includes the BJP and the JD(S) – is expected to retain around 25 seats.
India Today's poll has given an edge to JD(S)'s Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna, who was recently arrested by a Special Investigation Team (SIT) for allegedly raping and sexually assaulting multiple women.
The exit poll has also predicted that the BJP has consolidated Lingayat votes and improved its vote share in Vokkaliga-dominated regions.
BJP To Open Account in Kerala: Exit Polls
Kerala, where the BJP has never won a Lok Sabha seat in the past, appears to be making significant inroads in at least 2-3 seats, as per the exit polls.
Generally, electoral contests in Kerala have been two-way fights between the LDF and UDF. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the UDF swept 19 seats, leaving the LDF with one seat, namely Alappuzha.
This time, however, close three-way contests between the NDA, UDF, and LDF were witnessed in mainly two seats – Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram.
The BJP fielded actor and former Rajya Sabha MP Suresh Gopi in Thrissur – and while he had come third in the 2021 Assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Thrissur, he has helped improve the party's vote share over the past five years.
Notably, the prime minister visited the constituency three times before the polls and even promised a Union Minister post to Gopi. Apart from the traditional upper-caste Hindu votes, the party also attempted to woo the Christian community, which wields power in the constituency.
In Thiruvananthapuram, three-time MP Shashi Tharoor faced the NDA's Rajeev Chandrasekhar and LDF's Pannyan Raveendran. Tharoor is learnt to be facing anti-incumbency in the constituency, especially in the coastal region, which has traditionally been a Congress stronghold.
Pathanamthitta also saw a fight between NDA's Anil Antony (son of veteran Congress leader AK Antony), UDF's sitting MP Anto Antony, and LDF's Thomas Isaac. This constituency had witnessed the right-wing-led Sabarimala protests in 2018, which significantly contributed to the BJP's rise in vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Political experts in the state, however, had said it would be difficult for Anil Antony to make a breakthrough in Pathanamthitta owing to the strength of the Congress in the region.
NDA Lead in Andhra Pradesh: Exit Polls
The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is set to gain massively in the Lok Sabha elections in the state, while the YSRCP – which won 22 out of 25 seats in the 2019 elections – will drastically reduce its numbers, as per the exit polls.
The YSRCP-ruled state also witnessed Assembly polls simultaneously.
The YSRCP – by and large, a welfarist government – is facing anti-incumbency over key issues ranging from unemployment to Jagan's capital-change proposal.
The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, meanwhile, has been hoping for a revival in the state. The TDP was presumed to be decimated for good in the previous polls, but Naidu's arrest in the skill development case in 2023 and Pawan Kalyan-led JSP's subsequent support for the party have helped change perceptions.
The BJP – initially reluctant to join the alliance owing to friction with Naidu – is virtually a non-entity in Andhra Pradesh. While Naidu hopes to secure his political career by rejoining the NDA, the BJP is desperate rate to make its presence felt in South India.
While his welfare schemes have garnered Jagan support in the rural parts of the state, issues like unemployment are a major poll concern among urban and young voters, as per political experts.
Andhra Pradesh's unemployment was the third-highest in the country in 2022-23, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data.
Another factor that may have put the ruling YSRCP at risk in the controversy surrounding the capital of the state.
BRS Loss in Telangana: Exit Polls
Owing to the BRS defeat in the 2023 Assembly elections in Telangana, the Lok Sabha elections largely became a battle between the Congress and the BJP in most seats of the state.
The BJP had won three seats in north Telangana and one seat in the Hyderabad region in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. They were Karimanagar, Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Secunderabad.
The party significantly improved its Assembly election tally too in 2023 by winning 8 seats in the north Telangana region. Experts said that it ate into the BRS' vote share.
Telangana, which has a significant Muslim population, also saw several communal incidents involving right-wing groups over the past few months.
(With inputs from Varsha Sriram.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)