Video Editor: Mohd. Irshad Alam
With the culmination of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, by late Saturday, a majority of the exit polls are predicting a landslide victory for the BJP-NDA. If these predictions are to be true, it would mean the party hasn’t just retained its mammoth win of the 2019 elections, but one-upped it by faring even better.
As per the Republic-PMarq survey, the NDA is winning 359 seats, while the INDIA bloc is winning 154 seats. The ABP- Cvoter exit poll is predicting the BJP to singlehandedly win 310 to 325 seats and the combined NDA tally to be 340-365 seats. Today’s Chanakya is predicting 400 paar, saying that the NDA could win 400 ± 15 Seats, and the INDIA 107 ± 11 Seats.
Here are the key takeaways based on the major exit polls.
Defeating All Anti-Incumbency
Multiple political analysts had predicted that there is no perceptible ‘Modi wave’ in the country this election, and that there is anger over issues of unemployment and inflation.
In the run up to the elections, issues like electoral bonds also surfaced in the news and the opposition tried to make it into an election issues. Besides these, this tenure of the Modi government saw one of the biggest farmers protests in 2020-2021. If the exit polls prove to be true, this would mean that the opposition has failed to make any of these issues stick with the masses on the ground. This would also mean the BJP has defeated any possible anti-incumbency that one would expect after a two-terms in office. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP is projected to register a near clean sweep with 25 - 28 out of 29 seats in MP and 10 - 11 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, as per the ABP- CVoter survey. Moreover, as per this exit poll, in Delhi the BJP is set to win 4-6 seats while the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party alliance could win 1- 3 seats, in Assam which has 14 seats, the BJP is projected to win 10 to 12 seats while Congress & others could win 2 to 4 seats. In Bihar, the BJP is predicted to win between 34 and 28 seats, and in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP-NDA could win between 68, according to exit poll projections released by ABP-Cvoter survey.
New inroads for BJP
Besides maintaining their winning streak, the exit polls are also predicting that the BJP has been able to make inroads in states where they have previously struggled, such as Kerala. The Axis My India- India Today is predicting a 27% vote share for BJP in Kerala and for it to win 2-3 seats. Kerala is one state where BJP has been trying to open their balance for several years. In 2019, the BJP won zero seats in Kerala.
In Tamil Nadu too, where PM Modi himself conducted multiple rallies and roadshows, the BJP is winning 2-3 seats, as per Axis My India- India today. This too is a gain given the party didn’t win a single seat in 2019. The BJP is gaining ground in West Bengal and is projected to win between 24 to 26 seats out of 42, up from 18 in 2019, as per the ABP- Cvoter survey.
Performance of INDIA
If the major exit poll results are even broadly true, they are all suggesting a massive failure for the opposition INDIA bloc. The INDIA bloc held its first meeting in June 2023, less than a year before the Lok Sabha polls. In this period, the bloc has held multiple meetings, joint press conferences and some joint roadshows for an opposition show of strength. But if the exit polls are to be believed, the INDIA opposition is failing to put up a decent fight to the BJP in most states. Some exceptions to this are states like Maharashtra. Here, as per the CVoter survey, the NDA and INDIA are getting roughly the same number of seats-- 24 seats each out of the 48 on offer. Moreover, in Haryana, the Congress is projected to lose as many as 5 seats; in 2019, the BJP-NDA had won all 10 seats in the state, as per the CVoter survey.
Third Term For PM Modi Likely
If BJP-NDA does end up getting such a victory, in all likelihood PM Modi will continue in his chair as PM. Union Home Minister Amit Shah had already effectively confirmed in May that PM Modi, who will turn 75 next year, is not going anywhere. Responding to comments by Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal about expected retirement of PM Modi from politics, Shah had said, “I would like to tell Arvind Kejriwal and company and the whole INDIA bloc that there is no need for you to feel happy that Mr. Modi is turning 75. It is not written anywhere in the BJP’s constitution that you have to retire. Mr. Modi will complete the term and will continue to lead the country. There is no confusion in BJP on this.”
This would mean that PM Modi will become Prime Minister in India since Nehru to win three consecutive terms. No other PM of any political party has enjoyed such a run, making this unprecedented.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)