C-Voter: LDF to Retain Power in Kerala; UPA Set for Sweep in TN

The DMK-led alliance is predicted to get more than two-thirds majority in the Tamil Nadu Assembly,

The C-Voter snap poll on Wednesday, 24 March released its projections for the upcoming Assembly Elections in four states and a Union territory.

The sample size for the C-Voter tracker is:

• Kerala: 12,077
• Tamil Nadu: 8,709
• Puducherry: 1,265

TAMIL NADU

UPA to See an Emphatic Increase in Seats

• The UPA alliance comprising DMK, Congress and others is expected to see an increase of 79 seats in Tamil Nadu, going from 98 in 2016 to 177 in 2021, shooting easily past the majority mark.
• Meanwhile the NDA, comprising AIADMK, BJP and others, might see a significant drop on 87 seats, going from 136 to 49.
• Projected seat-share for UPA is 173-181 seats, while that for NDA is 45-53 seats.

MK Stalin Preferred CM

• DMK’s MK Stalin has been projected in the C-Voter poll as the most preferred candidate to be the chief minister of the state, with 43.1 % respondents voting for him.
• UPA is also expected to see a vote-share increase by 6.6 percentage points, going from 39.4% in 2016 to 46 % in 2021.
• NDA, on the other hand, is expected to see a vote-share decrease of 9.1 percentage points going from 43.7 % to 34.6%.

What Voters Feel: Is TN Ready for Slogans Like ‘Jai Shree Ram’?

A snap poll (sample size: 1,513) by C-Voter indicates the following about voter perception in Tamil Nadu.

Do you think Tamil Nadu is open to accept slogans like “Jai Shree Ram” and the politics of Hindutva that the BJP propagates?

While 45.5% respondents feel that no, Tamil Nadu is not open to slogans like "Jai Shree Ram" and the politics of Hindutva that the BJP propagates, 31.7% respondents feel it is and 22.8% respondents cannot say.

Will TTV Dinakaran’s AMMK play spoilsport for AIADMK by securing a significant chunk of the AIADMK vote?

While 45.1% respondents feel that yes, Dinakaran’s AMMK will play spoilsport for AIADMK, 32.9% feel it won’t and 28.1% cannot say.

KERALA

LDF to Retain Power

• In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to lose 14 seats, going from 91 in 2016 to 77 in 2021. This, however, will be enough for the LDF to retain power in the 140-member Assembly.

• Meanwhile, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to see an increase of 15 seats, going from 47 in 2016 to 62 in 2021.
• BJP is expected to remain at 1 seat.
• While LDF’s protected range is 71 to 83 seats, UDF’s projected range is 56 to 68 seats.

Pinarayi Vijayan Preferred CM

• CPI (M)’s Pinarayi Vijayan has been projected in the C-Voter poll as the preferred candidate to be the chief minister of the state, with 39.3% respondents voting for him.
• LDF’s voter share may dip by 1.1 percentage points going from 43.4% (2016) to 42.4% (2021), while UDF’s vote share may dip by 0.2 percentage points, going from 38.8 to 38.6.

What Voters Feel: Will the BJP’s Hindutva Politics Make Inroads in Kerala?

A snap poll (sample size: 1,735) by C-Voter indicates the following about voter perception in Kerala.

Will the BJP’s Hindutva politics make inroads in Kerala?

25.3% respondents feel that yes, BJP’s Hindutva politics will make inroads in Kerala, while 52.7% don’t think so at all.

Meanwhile, 10.5% respondents feel that BJP does not do Hindutva politics, and 11.5% can’t say.

Is ‘Love Jihad’ really a issue in Kerala? If yes, how much impact do you think it will have on the elections?

53.2% respondents feel that ‘Love Jihad’ will not have any impact on the elections, while 16.9% respondents feel that it will have a big impact.

Meanwhile, 17.9% feel that it will have a little impact and 12.0% can’t say.

PUDUCHERRY

NDA a Potential Winner?

• In Puducherry, the C-Voter poll has projected a win for the NDA this time.
• While the UPA is expected to see a drop of 8 seats, down from 17 in 2016 to 9 in 2021, the NDA is expected to see a rise of 9 seats, going from 12 to 21.
• The UPA’s projected range of seats is 7-11 and the NDA’s projected range is 19-23.

N Rangaswamy Preferred CM

• All India N.R. Congress (AINRC)’s N Rangaswamy has been projected in the C-Voter poll as the most preferred candidate to be the chief minister of the state, with 49.8% respondents voting for him.
• The vote-share for UPA is expected to remain unchanged at 39.5%. However, the vote-share for NDA is expected to increase by 16.7 percentage points, going from 30.5% in 2016 to 47.2%.

What Voters Feel: Will Infighting Hurt NR Congress-BJP’s Prospects?

A snap poll (sample size: 1,002) by C-Voter indicates the following about voter perception in Puducherry.

Will infighting within the NR Congress-BJP camp hurt their chances this election?

While 43.3% respondents feel that yes, infighting within the NR Congress-BJP camp will hurt their chances this election, 27.6% disagree and 29.1% can’t say.