Chants of Azadi, a string of celebrities, and the resonance of Lal Salaam – in the past two months, all this and more had gripped Bihar’s Begusarai.
Political pundits and newsrooms across the country were keeping a close eye on the political slugfest in the constituency, amid the chaos of the Lok Sabha elections. On one hand, there was Communist Party of India’s Kanhaiya Kumar, former president of the JNU Student Union, while on the other hand, there was the Bharatiya Janata Party's firebrand leader Giriraj Singh.
The results have since come out and Union minister Giriraj Singh has emerged victorious, defeating Kanhaiya Kumar by a record four lakh votes.
The contest had become a prestige battle for the BJP. If the BJP had turned every stone to capture the seat, then Kumar and his party were not far behind. However, the BJP's strategy, ultimately, managed to tame the CPI’s red wave.
This raises a pertinent question. How did Kumar lose from a seat considered to be a Left bastion – despite countless celebrity endorsements and a massive social media backing?
Let's analyse the reasons which led to Singh's victory and Kumar’s defeat:
Dwindling Left
The footprint of Kanhaiya Kumar’s party, the Communist Party of India, is shrinking all over the country. This can be gauged by the Left party’s dismal performance in the West Bengal Lok Sabha polls, where it had ruled for more than 30 years. It could not win even a single seat.
A similar situation exists in Begusarai, where the CPI candidate has finished at number three in the last several Lok Sabha elections. Though the arrival of Kumar had reignited the party cadre, the people of Begusarai disregarded the ‘Lal Salaam’ nonetheless – giving him only 22 percent of the votes.
Giriraj’s Pro-Hindu Image
The pro-Hindu image of Giriraj Singh played a significant role. He managed to establish that Kanhaiya Kumar was ‘anti-Hindu’ – by making things like ‘Kanhaiya did not shave his head after the death of his father’ a political issue.
Slogans like ‘Vande Matram’ and ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ also repeatedly punctured the environment created by Kumar’s campaign.
Nationalism and the ‘Anti-national’
Singh made the ‘patriot versus anti-national’ peg the central theme of his campaign. Kumar was repeatedly branded as ‘Pakistan's agent’ and a member of the ‘Tukde Tukde Gang’, jibes that seem to have borne fruit.
Coupled with the nationalistic fervour post the Balakot air strike and the underlying Modi wave, Kumar was left helpless.
No Alliance With RJD
Right from Kumar’s entry into politics, speculations were rife that Lalu Prasad’s RJD will support him in Begusarai. But, at the last moment, the CPI and RJD failed to work out an alliance. Singh directly benefited from the split vote.
While it can be argued that even the combed vote banks of Kumar and RJD’s Tanvir Hassan was not enough to defeat Singh, it must be understood here that the combined efforts of the two parties would have had a much more potent attack.
Misfiring Star Power
While several celebrity-figures like Javed Akhtar, Shabana Azmi, Swara Bhaskar, Yogendra Yadav, Prakash Raj, Jignesh Mevani did campaign for Kumar, their impact could not translate into votes as people were more concerned with real issues.
Missing Bhumihar Factor
While both Kanhaiya Kumar and Giriraj Singh belong to the Bhumihar caste, the factor did not play out in favour of the former as he had reached out to Lalu Prasad after his release from jail – following the JNU sedition charges.
Kumar had touched Lalu’s feet, an act that seems to have triggered the Bhumihar community as they are opposed to Lalu. Singh, too, made sure to use this against Kumar.
(This story was first published in Quint Hindi)
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