At least half of India's population is likely to have been infected with COVID-19 by next February and that would help slow the spread of the disease, a member of the government panel in charge of providing projections said on Monday, 19 October, as per a report by the Reuters.
India is ranked second only to the United States of America in reporting the total number of COVID-19 cases in the world.
As per a Reuters tally, COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September with 61,390 cases.
“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February.”Manindra Agrawal, a member of the government committee and a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology told Reuters.
On why the committee's estimate of the current spread of the virus is much higher than the government's serological surveys, Agrawal explained that the serological surveys might not be able to get accurate sampling because of the sheer size of the population.
“We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal said.
The panel warned that their estimates would not hold if the COVID-19 precautions and protocols like social distancing, wearing masks, etc., are not adhered to.
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