'Not a Natural Disaster': Rains Triggered Wayanad Landslides, But There's More

Mundakkai is an 'extremely ecologically sensitive zone' as categorised by the Madhav Gadgil committee.

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In the early hours of 30 July, massive landslides struck Wayanad’s Chooralmala and Mundakkai villages in Kerala, leading to the deaths of over 270 people and injuring hundreds of others.

While heavy rainfall is a major contributor, it is not the only cause of the landslides in Wayanad. Environmental changes, soil piping, and the expansion of tourism have significantly contributed to the situation there.

Earlier this year, IIT Delhi had released a landslide susceptibility map that indicated a "high to very high risk" of landslides in Wayanad. As much as 58.52 percent of the region was classified as "at risk," including the villages most affected by the recent landslides.

An AI-based landslide susceptibility map from 2024 also revealed that 13 percent of Kerala’s area is highly vulnerable to landslides, with Wayanad being a major contributor to this statistic.

What went wrong in Wayanad? Did we ignore early warning signs?

Rainfall Was the Primary Trigger

Even as other factors at play have contributed to the disaster, rains were a primary trigger.

MG Manoj, a scientist at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, tells The Quint,

"When rainfall exceeds 21.5 cm within 24 hours, it is classified as extremely heavy by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). This incident was categorised as exceptionally heavy rainfall, with 57.2 cm falling within 48 hours and a total of nearly 89-90 cm in the past five days. Such volumes of water exceed the soil's capacity to withstand, leading to increased risk of landslides."

Manoj further adds, "The monsoon is currently active, and we expect rain for at least the next three days. If the rainfall continues, we could see more landslides as the soil loses its saturation, which will lead to further soil erosion."

But Other Factors Also to Blame…

Manoj, however, adds that soil piping, which involves water creating hidden tunnels within the soil, might have contributed to the recent landslides. As these underground tunnels expand, they can cause significant soil instability and collapse.

Another factor that led to this scale of devastation might have been soil saturation.

Add to this the fact that Mundakkai is also an "extremely ecologically sensitive zone" as categorised by the Madhav Gadgil committee.

PU Das, a retired soil conservation officer of Wayanad, explains:

“Given that the region is ecologically sensitive, no single factor can fully explain the situation. Multiple factors contribute to the issue, with rainfall intensity being a major contributor. Over the years, climate conditions, including the frequency of rainfall, have changed significantly in the state.”

However, N Badusha, a conservationist and wildlife defender, says this is "not purely a natural disaster," and human activity in Wayanad has given way to this.

"Almost every landslide in Wayanad occurs in the Western region, where tea plantations are prevalent. Tamil migrants, who were brought in to work on these plantations, often live in estate facilities without secure places to move if a disaster strikes. Additionally, numerous tourism-related projects, such as resorts, have been developed in nearby areas. This is not purely a natural disaster but rather a consequence of inadequate measures, including the failure to relocate residents from high-risk areas. The region also faces a high influx of tourists, further complicating the situation."

N Badusha

‘Unprecedented Levels of Havoc’

However, this wasn't the one incident to have shaken the region, even though it was the first of this scale and intensity.

In August 2020, Mundakkai had experienced a minor erosion event causing the relocation of few families. K Mani, a forester from Wayanad who was stationed in the region until recently and is now stationed at Muthanga Forest, says, "Sometimes these incidents occur within the forest and remain contained, without impacting people."

But previously whenever there was a heavy rainfall alert, people living on the hilly slopes of Mundakkai would be moved to safer areas in Chooralmala. But this time the latter was affected tragically too.

Mani tells The Quint that the scale of the recent disaster was unprecedented. "In 2020, while some damage was observed, it did not compare to the current level of destruction. The recent heavy rains and landslides were far more severe than anything seen in the past decade," he notes.

The Urgent Need To Update Our Risk Management Systems

Experts tell The Quint that going ahead, there is an immense need to update our research methods and use advanced systems to manage natural disasters and the current climate challenges.

Sethu Madhav, Senior Researcher at Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies, says,

"We need to address current field data and raise awareness about available systems and countermeasures. Factors like coastal erosion and coastal aggression are also at play. Kerala needs updated models to better anticipate and manage such situations. We have detailed surface and flood models that can predict water movement based on slopes during rainfall. Implementing such systems is crucial for creating awareness and effectively managing risks."

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Wednesday evening said, "Rescue operations in Wayanad are continuing at full scale. This is an unprecedented and painful disaster. So far, 144 bodies have been recovered- 79 men and 64 women. There are still 191 people missing. Efforts are being made to evacuate as many people as possible from the disaster area, and necessary medical treatment is being provided to those who have been rescued."

Speaking in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that Kerala had been given early warning about the landslide situation. Replying to this, Vijayan told mediapersons that this is not the time for a "blame game."

(The writer is a freelance journalist based in Chennai.)