COP27 | Doomsday Might Just Arrive in 9 Years: Here’s How

The Global Carbon Budget 2022 has stated that global carbon emissions (CO2) in 2022 are at record levels.

Another report warning of a disastrous future, released by the Global Carbon Project, has stated that global carbon emissions in 2022 are reaching record high levels with emissions at 40.6 billion tons - HIGHEST EVER.

Warning: If emissions continue at the same rate, there is a 50 percent chance that global temperatures will cross the 1.5°C limit in nine years, resulting in the most dangerous and irreversible effects of climate change.

Why is 1.5°C a tipping point: The global temperatures are already at 1.1°C above the post-industrial revolution levels and we are struggling to keep it from rising. The goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement was to keep global temperatures well below 2, preferably to 1.5°C.

Key Highlights - 'Global Carbon Budget' Report:

1. Fossil Fuel Emissions:

In 2022, carbon emissions from fossil fuels are on course to rise by one percent from 2021. This is mainly driven by the increased use of oil by the aviation industry. Emissions in 2020 had declined by 5.4 percent from 2019 levels mainly due to the pandemic.

While CO2 emissions for 2022 are projected to decrease in China and in the European Union, they are set to increase in the United States and India.

2. Land and Ocean Carbon Sinks to Decrease:

Several patches of land and oceans act as carbon sinks, that absorb CO2, like forests. In the gone decade, 53 percent of CO2 was absorbed by such natural sinks.

However, due to climate change, the absorption capacity of these natural sinks has reduced. The capacity of land sinks has gone down by 4 percent and of ocean sinks by 17 percent between 2012-2021.

3. Atmospheric CO2:

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is likely to rise by 51 percent above pre-industrial levels in 2022.

4. Progress Since the Paris Agreement:

The world is left with a limited capacity to emit more carbon. To simplify, this capacity can be called 'carbon budget'.

The carbon budget required to limit global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C has reduced. If the 2022 emission levels persist, these levels will be crossed in 9 years, 18 years, and 30 years, respectively.