I Predicted That Donald Trump Would Win and Why I Was Right

Abhinav Pandya writes on Trump’s ability to strike a chord with people across America, and why he may win.

Activists of right-wing Hindu Sena conduct rituals to ensure a win for US presidential candidate Donald Trump in New Delhi, May 11, 2016. (Photo: AP)

(The following blog is from The Quint’s archives, and was originally published on 17 May, 2016. It is being republished following the election of Donald Trump as US President – an outcome correctly predicted by this author.)

Just about six months back, Donald Trump was hardly taken as a serious contender for the American presidency. A New Yorker, who spent his life building casinos, golf courses and hotels, and hosting reality shows, would be the most unexpected candidate. Many a time while visiting UN headquarters, I had strolled outside the premises of Trump Tower and a strong sense of intuition informed that it’s not just Trump – rather it’s a Trump phenomenon setting the course for America in the “interesting times” coming ahead.

Over the last six months, I have been a witness to the class arrogance, snobbery and elitism of the left-liberal intellectual class and media in their understanding of the Trump phenomenon. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell states that Trump is “completely uneducated about any part of the world.” The Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson finds Trump’s “ignorance of government policy … breathtaking.”

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Texas. (Photo: AP)

Tara Setmayer of CNN says Trump is “wholly unqualified” to be president, while the New York Times editorial board finds Trump “disturbing” and “shockingly ignorant.” And, in the process he has become stronger and now seems invincible. The rise of Trump reminds me of the rise of Narendra Modi in India who was almost banished by the intellectual class and left-liberal media for his controversial role in the Gujarat riots. However, this denial and banishment after a point sounded racial, spiteful, and politically-motivated. Now, It seems that history is repeating itself but in a different continent.

I feel that now it’s much more rational to understand the Trump phenomenon and accept his political existence. We have no choice, because a reasoned opposition to Trump can only come from this acceptance of the Trump phenomenon.

Striking a Chord with the People

The rise of Trump is not just the ordinary rise of a presidential candidate. His rise has much deeper meaning. It signifies a big questionmark by the American populace on the neo-liberal regime characterised by free-trade, generous aid programs and military interventions to foster democracy and American values, and the self-imposed onus of being the world’s policeman, often demanding a huge economic, political and military investment. This regime has been in existence since the end of WW II.

In a cab journey from Hagerstown (Maryland) Washington DC, I got a chance to interact with Marc, an Afro-American war veteran who now drives a cab. To me, he appeared to be a simple, god-fearing, middle-class American.

I realised that despite his bluster and bullying, Trump has emerged as a hero for many ordinary Americans like Marc, which includes Mexicans, Afro-Americans, Asians and the white citizens. In my interaction with common citizens like Marc, I felt that Trump has an extraordinary insight into the art of political communication – he talks straight to people’s hearts.

In other such interactions, I also realisedthat most of his adversaries lack this quality; especially Hillary, who, in my understanding fails to connect with America. She is perceived as someone who is too mechanical and has no conviction. Further, she is perceived as a military enthusiast who in all likelihood will continue with the interventionist foreign policies with respect to Iran and Syria. And the people are fatigued with never-ending wars, increasing American bases, and forward troop deployment. The only democratic candidate who connects with people with his ideas on poverty and inequality was Bernie Sanders, but it is more or less clear that he is out of the race now.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves as he arrives for a meeting at the Republican National Committee Headquarters on Capitol Hill in Washington, 12 May 2016. (Photo: AP)

Trump’s Vision

Trump’s bold and forthright standon Islamic extremism vis-à-vis the Democrats’ obsession with political correctness, reflecting in the use of terms like “violent extremism” does not go down well with common people. His political adversaries are perceived as going to extraordinary lengths to appease countries like Saudi Arabia, which are playing a crucial role in spreading radical Islam.

Trump’s vision for America’s future is realistic. David Sanger and Maggie Haberman capture it well in their New York Times interview with Trump:

In Mr Trump’s worldview, the United States has become a diluted power, and the main mechanism by which he would re-establish its central role in the world is economic bargaining. He approached almost every current international conflict through the prism of a negotiation, even when he was imprecise about the strategic goals he sought.

Donald Trump at a primary night news conference in New York, May 2016. (Photo: AP)

In effect, his foreign policy means that he would be willing tostop buying oil from the Saudis if they are not serious in fight against the ISIS; restrict China’s access in US markets if she continues with her strong-arm tactics and bullying in the South China Sea, and stop economic aid to Pakistan if it continues to support terrorist groups in India and Afghanistan. Further, from his apparent vagueness and contradictions it appears that Machiavellian unpredictability is also going to be the core principle of his diplomacy.

You know, if I win, I don’t want to be in a position where I’ve said I would or I wouldn’t [use force to resolve a particular dispute]... I wouldn’t want to say. I wouldn’t want them to know what my real thinking is.

Donald Trump in an interview to the New York Times

It is not surprising that someone who has spent his life building casinos andhosting reality shows imports the gambler’s bluff in international relations.

I don’t know if I really want to see him as President or not but yes, I do want to venture into the wonderland of Trump’s America, either out of trust, attraction or just simple curiosity. I feel that he has a charisma and an intuitive, mystic-like persona. My thoughts on Trump’s America are just as unpredictable as his persona. At this stage, I can just say that it will be a new chapter in America’s history, hopefully for good, if he wins.

(The writer is Project Consultant, ILO, Delhi. He can be reached at @abhinavpandya. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)