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Over two months have passed since the Indian Parliament abrogated Article 370 of the Constitution, and imposed a communication blackout in Jammu & Kashmir — which is slowly being lifted, with postpaid mobile phones and landlines getting activated.
The national discourse that has erupted since has been severely polarised, with the majority of mainland India welcoming and, in many cases, aggressively celebrating, the abrogation. Many in the mainland have saluted the Centre’s decision to have a major military clampdown in the state, put all of the mainstream leaders under house-arrest and indefinitely extend the (now partial) communication blackout.
There has further been vehement support of the government’s decision on economic grounds as well, with many feeling that the scrapping of Article 370 will allow industry investment and galvanise Jammu & Kashmir for growth and development.
A small but vocal minority has criticised the government’s actions on grounds that it will further alienate the Kashmiris, and that it is also undemocratic.
Narratives in the media have portrayed polar extremes — the bulk of the Indian mainstream media has tried to present a picture of ‘normalcy’ in the Valley since 5 August, with many even going to the extent of declaring that a majority of Kashmiris ‘support’ the move.
On the other hand, most of the international (mainly Western) media outlets have been far more critical — vehemently condemning the Indian government’s actions. The few instances of protests in the Valley had also initially been reported only by the international media, leading to many in the Indian mainstream declaring it as ‘fake news’, until the government itself ‘clarified’ their authenticity.
Two months on, most mainstream political leaders of Kashmir remain under house arrest, and even though restrictions on movement and the functioning of government offices, private enterprises and educational institutions have been lifted, the situation is far from normal. The Valley is in the grips of a partially self-imposed, and at places militant-sponsored curfew, representing the people’s disappointment with what has transpired recently on one side, and the fear of militants on the other. Shops and businesses are still operating surreptitiously, and schools are functioning at abysmally poor attendance levels.
Although, all this may take months to implement, the process must begin instantly.
As mentioned earlier, complete obliviousness regarding Kashmir’s future has dominated the discourse. In such a scenario, only the people of Kashmir, specifically the youth, can control the future outcome of the situation.
Compared to the average age of India’s mainstream politicians, some of Kashmir’s top mainstream politicians are relatively young — Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Sajjad Lone, Salman Soz, etc. So, a lot will ride on how they choose to harness youth energy as and when they are released from detention. Likewise, there are people like Shah Faesal who’ve also committed themselves to a career in politics. It will be interesting to see what stance Shah Faesal for instance, takes when he is released, and whether someone like him will become a fresh or alternative political focal point, especially for the youth.
Over the last decade, the Kashmiri youth have significantly increased their influence over the political discourse and activism in the state. The new wave of militancy that erupted in Kashmir in the aftermath of the protests and instability of 2016 was also dominated by the youth, with a majority of new militant recruits being between the age group of 15-25.
The existing lockdown cannot go on forever; the state at some point has to restore democratic standards of living. The removal of restrictions is critical as it will determine how the youth react to the events of the past 8 weeks. Unlike now, when people can probably only gauge the mood of their locality, colony or at the most district, when restrictions are removed, voices from across the Valley will be heard, their actual feelings and opinions will surface.
Thus, the youth’s discretion to fight or acquiesce to the central government’s decisions will determine Kashmir’s destiny. If anger and resentment force them to push back and revolt, a new period of chaos, anarchy and violence could be upon us.
From the few ground reports that have emerged from the Valley, feelings of mistrust, resentment and alienation among the youth seem to be simmering already. On the other hand, if dejection and fatigue overpower the people, then in their helplessness they might hold the political class, separatists and militants equally responsible for the current situation and their plight over the years. Thus, the path that Kashmir will now take firmly lies in the hands of its youth, beyond the grasp of ‘policymakers’ in New Delhi and Islamabad.
(The author recently graduated from the University of St Andrews with an MA in International Relations and Management, and tracks Pakistan, China and the Indian Ocean Region. This is a personal blog, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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