For Rahul Gandhi, an Uphill March Ahead, But Not Without Tailwind

Growing disenchantment with BJP government will help Congress though it won’t be smooth sailing ahead of 2019 polls.

Growing disenchantment with the BJP government will help Congress, though it won’t be smooth sailing ahead of 2019 polls.

(Photo: Harsh Sahni/The Quint)

Rahul Gandhi will be Congress President soon. After he emerged the lone candidate for the post a week ago, much has been said about the challenges he faces in his new role. Expectations are certainly high. Party workers are looking up to Rahul to steer the Congress to its former glory and, outside the political domain, there is hope that he will push for saner economic policies and take on the Hindutva brigade and its corrosive faux-nationalism.

And all this has to be undertaken in the face of a ruling dispensation not averse to bending the conventional rules of political combat, and an unfriendly, if not hostile, corporate sector-electronic media nexus.

Too caught up to read? Listen to the story:

Factors That Can Work in Rahul’s Favour

The road ahead is clearly tough and as Rahul and the Congress negotiate potholes and ambushes, they would do well to keep an eye on factors that can be made to work in their favour.

For starters, Rahul’s elevation, coming as it does, at a time when disenchantment with Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is growing and the electorate has begun engaging with thoughts of an alternative, could not have been better-timed.

The slow pace of job creation, increased targeting of dalits and Muslims by the Hindutva brigade, and several unanswered allegations of crony capitalism have disappointed many who were swayed by Modi’s acche din, sabka saath-sabka vikas and na khaunga-na khane doonga pitches.

The perception that Modi Sarkar would not have delivered the double blow demonetisation-GST and focused more on substantive issues had its leader been more open to others’ views and less occupied with image management efforts, has also gained ground.

The question marks then are not only around Modi Sarkar’s governance capacities, but also around whether Modi’s leadership style harmonises with the rhythms of a complex and diverse democracy.

Slide in Modi-BJP Graph Will Benefit Other Parties

Latest news from Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh (UP) confirms the slide in the Modi-BJP graph (their aura was overstated to begin with, but that’s another story). BJP’s performance in the recently-concluded UP urban local body elections is hardly flattering, especially if one recalls its sweep of the electorally-crucial state both in 2014 and the assembly elections just nine months ago.

More notably, something that was unthinkable till even a few months ago has occurred in Gujarat: the BJP has had to bend its back in an old citadel and the home state of its top two.

The Congress, of course, cannot be the only potential beneficiary of the BJP’s slide. Several regional parties, already alert to Hindutva’s contempt of socio-cultural specificities, the BJP’s hegemonic aspirations, and the Modi-Shah duo’s no-prisoners-taken style, stand to gain too — and also have the wherewithal to take on the BJP on their own turf without assistance from the Congress.

However, in what should be another piece of welcome news for Team Rahul, these regional formations may still be open to joining the Congress in a national-level anti-BJP bulwark in the hope of a more accommodating center.

Even if state-level dynamics do not permit all of them to come under the same umbrella, it is difficult to imagine, at least at this point, the Left parties and the likes of Akhilesh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, MK Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Naveen Patnaik will throw their weight behind the BJP.

People are Embracing Rahul’s New Avatar

Can Rahul capitalise on these opportunities? The signs are encouraging. He has already demonstrated the tact and heart it takes to craft state-level alliances and enjoys an equation with non-BJP notables in at least two large states – Akhilesh in UP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s GenNext in Bihar.

Of greater import though, is the Rahul persona we have seen recently: humble, considerate of opinion, open to other views, and much more invested in political cut-and-thrust. It is not only helping shake off the “hobbling dynast” and Pappu tags, but also signaling a very contrasting leadership style to the one Modi has come under fire for.

The result? Sections of the electorate are taking a fresh look at the Rahul option and sensing the emergence of a challenger to Modi. The Shiv Sena’s positive assessment of Rahul may be dismissed as mischievous, but the response Rahul has drawn in recent months, especially during and after his US trip, cannot be treated lightly.

The BJP has been compelled to field its top leaders in retaliation, and there are even reports of BJP sympathisers privately conceding how foolhardy it might be to underestimate him going forward.

Reaping the Benefit of Anti-BJP Sentiment

There cannot be a conceivably better start to Rahul’s presidential tenure than a Congress win in Gujarat, but there will be no shame in a loss either. The party can legitimately take pride for putting up a brave fight. In any case, whether Gujarat wins or not, the experience would have once again underscored the need for strengthening the Congress organisation.

Realistically speaking, there may not be enough time before the next parliamentary election to build a grassroots-level machinery country-wide, but deployment of crack teams and smart leadership choices at state and regional (sub-state) levels could prove enough to harvest the brewing anti-BJP sentiment. It is something that the new Congress President must prioritise.

Last but not the least, one hopes that Rahul appreciates that his mission is not a political one alone, but one of reclaiming the idea of India. In standing up for free speech, farmers, dalits and adivasis and small businesses, and clarifying that his religion is a private matter, he has shown that his personal positions are in sync with the liberal and welfarist impulses of the Constitution of India. Reinforcing the same among his party colleagues and inspiring them to fight for it, however, is an unfinished agenda.

From a medium-term perspective, the internal battle is no less challenging than the one in the electoral arena, and Rahul will need to dig deep within himself to make meaningful progress. Thankfully, he has shown the commitment to nation, equanimity and steel needed to fight these twin battles. How many people can pick themselves up and press themselves into public service after witnessing two political martyrdoms in the immediate family and perennially being at the crosshairs of an organised lampooning industry?

To Rahul Gandhi, with much hope then.

(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and political columnist. His second work of fiction, a novella titled ‘A Murderous Family’ has recently been released by Juggernaut Books. He can be reached at @ManishDubey1972. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

(Voices of Gujarat: Tired of listening to netas make promises? As Gujarat goes to polls, The Quint wants to listen to the real voices of Gujarat – the voters. Tell us what issues matter to you this election season. Send in your videos to [e-mail] or WhatsApp @ [phone])