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Video Editor: Mohd Ibrahim
Video Producer: Anubhav Mishra
Cameraperson: Sumit Badola
Coal output crashes by over 20 percent. Overall, eight core sectors lose a stunning 5.2 percent year-on-year over September 2018, contracting to an 8-year low. GDP hits a 6-year low. And yet, India’s stock markets hit an all-time high!
Why, you ask?
To understand this conundrum, let’s dial back a few months, to May 2019. Everybody thought that a struggling economy would dent Prime Minister Modi’s 2014 mandate. But he shocked the whole world by improving upon his tally, crossing a breath-taking 300 seats in Lok Sabha. The markets broke into a euphoric dance of crazy expectations. Surely, he would use his vastly enhanced political capital to finally essay deep, difficult reforms to unshackle the economy, once and for all, right?
Click on the player below to listen to the podcast.
No, wrong. The second Modi government’s first budget was an unusual tax-and-spend document. Among several excesses, it unwittingly brought foreign investors under a “super rich tax” of nearly 43 percent .
Following this statement from the finance minister, spurned and panicky foreign investors voted with their feet. The markets tumbled nearly 10 percent, threatening to test much lower bottoms.
So, even an indomitable prime minister had to roll back. He cut India’s corporate tax rate by an eye-rubbing 10 percentage points in one swish of the axe. For new manufacturing companies, it was slashed to around 17 percent, perhaps the lowest and most competitive rate on earth for an economy of comparable opportunities.
Ever since that u-turn, the government has been accelerating in the reverse direction. It is talking about hitherto unthinkable actions. For instance:
So, has the government given up its obscurantist policies for good? Fully and completely endorsed a competitive and market-friendly policy architecture? Unfortunately, NO. Here are a few examples:
It’s this lingering dissonance/confusion in the government’s policies – exemplified so graphically by its stance on BPCL versus BSNL/MTNL – that is radiating a larger dissonance through the economy. And that’s why the markets are at a record high, while key sectors are reeling in pessimism. It’s now time to kill the dissonance and move “one way” on the highway to bold reforms.
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