Breaking Views: In PM’s LS Speech, A Message for Would-Be Allies

The BJP might not reach the 272 mark in the 2019 elections. The PM’s speech reflected this possibility.

The prime minister’s speech indicates that the BJP may fall short of the 272 mark.

(Photo: The Quint)

Video Editor: Sandeep Suman

Since last week, there has been enough discussion over the no-confidence motion and the drama surrounding it. But the implications in the speech for the upcoming 2019 elections haven’t been much talked about.

Did You Listen to the Speech Carefully?

If you listen to the PM's speech carefully, you get a sense that as per the BJP's internal assessment, the party may fall short of the majority figure of 272.

The first thing that the PM said on the no-confidence motion was that it was a confidence motion for the Congress on whether the party manages to retain its allies. After that, he named several politicians and parties to provoke them against the Congress.

History is testimony to what they (Congress) did with Subhash Chandra Bose when he tried to look them in their eyes. Morarji Desai, Jaiprakash Narayan, Chaudhary Charan Singh Sardar, Vallabhbhai Patel, Chandra Shekhar Ji, and Pranab Mukherjee are witness to what they did when they tried to look into their eyes. Even Sharad Pawar wasn’t spared.

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister

Which Leaders Being Targeted For 2019 Elections?

There are three important names to be considered. First, the PM named HD Deve Gowda, to remind him of the Congress' misbehaviour. The second person he named was Sharad Pawar. Lastly, he named Charan Singh. It is unclear whether PM Modi implicitly wanted to send a message of friendship to Ajit Singh by reminding him of the Congress' attitude towards Charan Singh.

The move will probably help the BJP if it falls short of the 272 mark. At the moment, all three parties are against the BJP. But in case the BJP falls short of majority or the Opposition does not gain enough seats to form the government, the BJP sees these parties as viable stakeholders for sharing power. The message was clear to Sharad Pawar, Deve Gowda and Ajit Singh.

Normally, PM Modi targets regional parties and case-based politics in his speeches. But it was missing this time. Perhaps he has realised that by talking about the SP and the BSP, he is giving more prominence to their alliance. Similarly, the PM did not mention Mamata Banerjee directly but referred to Subhas Chandra Bose to send a message to the people of West Bengal.

2019 Elections Might Be Risky For BJP

PM Modi didn't speak anything about Shiv Sena who abstained from voting on the no-confidence motion. The BJP will definitely need more support in 2019 after some of its allies like the Shiv Sena have parted ways. You call it a sign of nervousness or something else, but there is a clear attempt to look for more allies.

Now, whoever you talk to is speculating about the 2019 elections, the next government or the next PM. This debate will continue. Until the votes have been counted, nobody has an answer to any of these questions. It’s very dangerous to make such predictions.

We keep hearing about the Ayodhya dispute or possible skirmishes with Pakistan or a possible game-changer welfare scheme. Unless there is dramatic turnaround in the narrative, the best case scenario for the BJP is that it returns to power with the help of allies. That means sharing power and giving control to others.

I could sense the apprehension about this in the PM’s speech.