Abdullahs Help INDIA Win J&K, But Has the BJP Really Lost? What The Results Mean

A look at the vote share shows the BJP's defeat in J&K Assembly elections may not be as big as it looks.

J&K Election Results Explained: Omar, Farooq Abdullah Help INDIA alliance Win Jammu and Kashmir, But Has BJP Really Lost? What The Results Mean

(Photo: PTI/edited by The Quint)

Video Editor: Kriti Saxena

An election after a decade and the INDIA alliance comprising of the J&K National Conference (NC), Congress and CPI-M has won  Jammu and Kashmir elections with a with a clear majority. 

So, how does one look at this figure? Is it necessarily a pro INDIA mandete? Is it really a 'defeat' for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)?

First, a quick look at 4 major factors that went against the party on the ground:

(1) Comeback of the biggest regional player

The NC's comeback is massive from 15 seats in 2014 to 40 this time, but equally massive is the fall of Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP) from 28 seats in 2014 to single digits this time. The Congress' tally has fallen from 17 in 2014 to about 10 seats. Even Ghulam Nabi Azad made no impact.

(2) Anger over Abrogation of Article 370 and statehood

Contrary to what the media and the BJP would like you to believe, this was one of the biggest issues for the people, specifically in the Kashmir region. The BJP , as the results show, has once again failed to make any mark in Kashmir.

(3) Failure to create goodwill in the valley

Voters in the Valley seem to have decisively voted for the INDIA bloc as it was the strongest anti-BJP force. Parties like PDP that had allied with the BJP in the past and those seen as pro-BJP, like Apni Party, fared poorly. 

(4) Unemployment

Creation of jobs following the Abrogation of Article 370 was one of the biggest promises of the BJP-led central rule in the Union Territory. However five years since, this still was the biggest issue for the locals with about 40% voters citing it as a key election issue as per a survey by CVoter.

BJP's Gains May be Bigger Than its Losses

Now, despite all of these factors, can BJP's performance be perceived as a loss?

Despite a decade since the last election, the Hindu vote, specifically in the Jammu region, has remained intact with the party. In 2014, the vote share of the party was at about 23%. This time, the BJP still has the highest vote share with a rise of at least 4 percentage points.

The party won 25 seats it won in 2014, but that was before the delimitation happened. Like 2014, this time too the party won big only in the Jammu region but the tally has risen to 27.

This means the National Conference and the Congress have not been able to sway or transfer any of the core BJP votes that the party has culitivated.

The victory for India bloc is decisive, but the Union Territory will still remain centrally controlled, which raises questions on the extent of powers that the newly formed government will really have.