How Did BJP Lose Elections Despite Amit Shah’s ‘Chanakya-Neeti’?

These data and facts will reveal when and where the BJP’s ‘election-winning machinery’ malfunctioned this elections.

(Photo: The Quint)

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam & Purnendu Pritam
Video Producer: Hera Khan

Amit Shah is Chanakya, he is an election machine. He can make or break a government. News anchors, politics experts and BJP leaders have said this every time the BJP won an election. But after the party lost in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, people are asking Janab, aise kaise? (How is it possible?)

You (Amit Shah) helped BJP expand its reign in 14 states within a period of 4 years and sidelined the country's biggest party (Congress). Naturally, your defeat will also be talk of the town.

Amit Shah, who talked about ruling India for the next 50 years, was not able to make the 'kamal' bloom in five states in the recent Assembly elections.

You might put forth the argument that losing one election cannot ascertain that Amit Shah's magic has failed. Saying this wouldn't be right. Or if you debate that incumbency was a major setback for the BJP in these states, Rajasthan has a record of changing  the government every five years, etc.

Let's walk you through the data and facts that will reveal when and where the BJP's 'election-winning machinery malfunctioned.

BJP's Trajectory – from Victory to Defeat

Amit Shah who took to leading the party in 2014 brought down the Left's fortress in Tripura, ended BJP's 14-year exile in Uttar Pradesh, won Haryana and Maharashtra and went on to win other states relentlessly.

Under Shah’s leadership, BJP won in Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya.

But nothing remains glorious forever.

Arvind Kejriwal Won Delhi

Amit Shah's first flop show began from Delhi. The whole country was swayed by the Modi wave. And the BJP was feeling victorious everywhere. But Aam Aadmi Party's Arvind Kejriwal did something that the Congress failed to do. Out of 70 seats in Delhi, the BJP could secure merely 3. This was a big loss for Amit Shah.

But this wasn't the end, Bihar's loss awaited him.

'No Bihar' in Bihar

Bihar witnessed Assembly elections in 2015. Lalu-Nitish's 'Mahagathbandhan' shrunk the BJP to a mere 53 seats, unlike 2010 when the BJP had secured 91 seats in the state.

Amit Shah's statement – 'Pakistan will celebrate Mahagathbandhan's win' – didn't benefit him.

After this defeat, Amit Shah's style was questioned.

Chanakya vs Chanakya

Amit Shah's real test was due in Gujarat where he was going to face Congress' 'Chanakya' Ahmed Patel. Amit Shah, Smriti Irani and Balwant Rajput were contesting from the BJP's side in the Rajya Sabha polls. But in Gujarat's election drama, the climax was designed by the Congress.

BJP won by two seats, but Congress' one seat stole the show. 'Chanakya-niti' was a flop here.

Soon after, the Gujarat Assembly elections followed. BJP was dwelling on the Modi wave as Congress began polluting the wave in Gujarat. Out of 182 seats in Gujarat, BJP failed to hit a century and was all out at 99. 

In Karnataka, BJP Managed to Do Well but Couldn't Taste Victory

In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, BJP emerged as the single largest party
with 104 out of 224 seats in the state. This was a big test for Amit Shah but Congress managed to crush the Kamal in its fist. The sleeping Congress had woken up and changed the power game by letting a junior party (JDU) lead.

After this loss, BJP's defeats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana have wounded Amit Shah's 'Kingmaker' image.

Amit Shah, rather the BJP, should be judged by the number of elections won by the party. After all, this is how they reckon their success. They should be measured according to the parameters set by them.

Winning Machine Will Face the Real Test in 2019

It is correct to say that Amit Shah has taken the BJP to new heights and has many accolades to his name. But his 'election-winning machinery' image will face the real test in the 2019 elections. So far, this wave has not been in sight.

In fact, there are several questions before them. Victory in the recent elections has renewed the Congress’ energy. While a united Opposition stands before the BJP, their allies are isolating them. In such a scenario, it doesn't seem that elections can be won on the basis of 'election machinery'.

The bigger question is: Will Amit Shah or BJP be ready to re-adjust? If not, then Janab, Aise Kaise?