Exit Polls 2019 Analysis: Reading Between the Lines

Most of the exit polls on Sunday, 19 May, forecast another term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

(Photo: The Quint)

Most of the exit polls on Sunday, 19 May, forecast another term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with some of them projecting BJP-led NDA to get more than 300 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha. What do these numbers indicate?

Talking to BloombergQuint, Co-Founder of LoudST and Political Commentator Amitabh Tiwari said the exit polls indicate that this has been a presidential election where the country has voted for the prime minister irrespective of state issues.

“There is a silent Modi wave 2.0. This election is more about choosing a PM than an MP. It clearly shows that the people have voted for the PM candidate. There was no official candidate from the opposition for the PM position. It has gone as planned for the BJP. There were some minor losses in UP, which they have clearly compensated as per the trends in West Bengal and Odisha.”

Amitabh Tiwari, Political Commentator and Strategist

‘Actual Result Won’t Mirror Exit Polls’

Editorial Director at Quintillion Media, Sanjay Pugalia reiterated Tiwari’s point that it India has mirrored a presidential election without changing the system. However, he said, the actual result will not be what the polls indicate.

“I do not think the actual result will mirror what we are seeing today. I’m not saying that NDA won’t be able to form the government by the directional trend of all these polls, but the numbers might be a bit here and a bit there...Modi had all advantage to himself, they executed a great campaign,” Pugalia said.

Associate Editor of The Hindu Narayan Lakshman also said, one must attach the caveat that the exit polls will quite possibly not tally with the results on 23 May, pointing the 2014 exit polls which did not predict the extent of the BJP’s victory in 2014 general elections and the error of magnitude in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Talking about Karnataka, where the exit polls have predicted a Bharatiya Janata Party victory, Lakshman said, “It suggests that maybe the people have lost faith in the way the ruling government has worked at the state level. But again, people think very differently about the general elections at the centre compared to state assembly elections.”

(Note: The data reflected in the video under ABP-CSDS should be read as ABP News-Nielsen. The error is regretted.)