Debate: Will the Balakot Air Strike Help the BJP Electorally?

According to a recent Axis survey, national security is the second biggest electoral issue ahead of 2019 elections.

What is the political impact of the Balakot air strike?

(Photo: BloombergQuint)

The air strike on the JeM camp in Balakot recently has become a major, if not the biggest plank for the BJP ahead of the general elections. In every rally since the air strike, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invoked the strikes, reiterating that his party will keep the country safe.

Meanwhile, the opposition has been silenced for the fear of seeming unpatriotic and any stray comment has become a whip in the hands of the BJP.

This is not the first time that a sitting government has made national security an election issue and it is unlikely to be the last, but will it work? Has the timing of the Balakot strike and the ensuing tensions with Pakistan ensured that it is foremost in the minds of the voters? Will issues like unemployment, rural distress, demonetisation matter more to the final choice voters make?

According to a recent Axis survey, 36 percent of the respondents think unemployment is the biggest issue, but national security at 26 percent is the second biggest issue.

Talking to BloomberQuint, Senior Journalist and Commentator Madhavan Narayanan said, he is not surprised that unemployment was mentioned as the key factor in the poll.

“This is a narrative the Congress used in the recent assembly elections and came to power in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. If that is any indication, then the BJP is not as strong as it seems. On the other hand, national security is a very emotive issue and it can swing votes.”

Madhavan Narayanan, Senior Journalist and Commentator 

The heightened sentiments related to national security panned across the country, coupled with a powerful orator like Modi can be a critical swing factor, Madhavan said.

“National security can act as an important election issue, but not as important as it is hyped up to be,” Madhavan added.

Co- Founder of LoudST and Political Commentator Amitabh Tiwari said that the air strike and the Pulwama attack have pushed the other issues like the farm distress, corruption and price rise to the sidelines.

“It is a new issue in the minds of the people and due to the high media penetration, the Axis survey has placed this as one of the top electoral issues...The congress is playing into the hands of the BJP by regularly asking the number of casualties, thus helping the BJP in its narrative.”

Amitabh Tiwari, Co- Founder of LoudST and Political Commentator 

Whether the air strike and the Pulwama attack will help the BJP in the upcoming elections depends on if it will be in the minds of people till then, he added.