ICC World Cup 2023: Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios – What Each Team Needs

#CWC23 | With #Netherlands getting eliminated today, three teams are fighting for one #WorldCup semi-final spot.

(Photo: PTI/Altered by The Quint)

Another chapter unfolded in the semi-finals race of the 2023 ICC World Cup on Wednesday (8 November), as after a 160-run defeat to England, Netherlands became the fourth team to be officially knocked out of the top four reckoning. In this aspect, they join Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and England.

Meanwhile, three of the four slots have already been occupied by India, South Africa and Australia. This leaves us with only one vacant slot, with three candidates – New Zealand, Pakistan & Afghanistan – fighting for it.

Let us have a look at qualification scenarios for all teams.

India, South Africa & Australia – Qualified

New Zealand

• Current Status – Fourth (8 points from 8 matches, NRR: +0.398)

• Remaining Fixture – Sri Lanka (9 November)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – New Zealand will then finish on 10 points, and their place in the top four will nearly be confirmed. All they will need to hope for is that Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t win their respective last fixtures by enormous margins to make up for their Net Run Rate (NRR) deficit.

• If they lose – In this case, the Kiwis will have to hope that both Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their respective last fixture, as they are all tied on points.

Pakistan

• Current Status – Fifth (8 points from 8 matches, NRR: +0.036)

• Remaining Fixture – England (11 November)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – Babar Azam and his team will first have to hope that New Zealand loses their last match against Sri Lanka. In case they don’t, a win will not suffice for Pakistan, and they will need to win by a huge margin.

• If they lose – A defeat will almost mean elimination for Pakistan. Unless, both New Zealand and Afghanistan lose their last match, and the former does so by a very big margin.

Afghanistan

• Current Status – Sixth (8 points from 8 matches)

• Remaining Fixture – South Africa (10 November, NRR: -0.338)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – Because they have a massive NRR disadvantage, the only way Afghanistan can qualify is if both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their respective last games. Alternatively, Afghanistan will have to beat South Africa by a gigantic margin and then hope to enter an NRR war.

• If they lose – Curtains.

England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Netherlands – Already knocked out.