ICC World Cup 2023: Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios – What Each Team Needs

#CWC23 | Four teams are fighting for 1 place. Here's what each teams needs to qualify for the #WorldCup semi-finals.

(Photo: PTI/Altered by The Quint)

Following the path of India and South Africa, Australia became the third team to ensure a place in the semi-finals of the 2023 ICC World Cup, courtesy of an epic triumph over Afghanistan on Tuesday (7 November).

Chasing a target of 292 runs, Australia once found themselves in a spot of grave bother, reeling at 91/7. However, Glenn Maxwell played the knock of his life, scoring an unbeaten 201 to rescue his team.

With the five-time champions confirming the extension of the Indian tour, we are now left with only one vacant semi-place, with four teams – New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Netherlands – fighting for it.

Let us have a look at qualification scenarios for all teams.

India, South Africa & Australia – Qualified

New Zealand

• Current Status – Fourth (8 points from 8 matches, NRR: +0.398)

• Remaining Fixture – Sri Lanka (9 November)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – New Zealand will then finish on 10 points, and their place in the top four will nearly be confirmed. All they will need to hope for is that Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t win their respective last fixtures by enormous margins to make up for their Net Run Rate (NRR) deficit.

• If they lose – In this case, the Kiwis will have to hope that both Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their respective last fixture, as they are all tied on points.

Pakistan

• Current Status – Fifth (8 points from 8 matches, NRR: +0.036)

• Remaining Fixture – England (11 November)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – Babar Azam and his team will first have to hope that New Zealand loses their last match against Sri Lanka. In case they don’t, a win will not suffice for Pakistan, and they will need to win by a huge margin.

• If they lose – A defeat will almost mean elimination for Pakistan. Unless, both New Zealand and Afghanistan lose their last match, and the former does so by a very big margin.

Afghanistan

• Current Status – Sixth (8 points from 8 matches)

• Remaining Fixture – South Africa (10 November, NRR: -0.338)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win – Because they have a horrendous NRR, the only way Afghanistan can qualify is if both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their respective last games. Alternatively, Afghanistan will have to beat South Africa by a gigantic margin and then hope to enter an NRR war.

• If they lose – Curtains.

Netherlands

• Current Status – Ninth (4 points from 7 matches)

• Remaining Fixtures – England (8 November, 12 November)

• Qualification Scenario:

• If they win both – Having an NRR deficit similar to that of Afghanistan – only worse – Netherlands will first have to beat both England & India by big margins. Then, they will have to hope that New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan all end up losing their last games.

• If they don’t win both – Eliminated.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & England – Already knocked out.