ICC World Cup 2023: Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios – What Each Team Needs

#Afghanistan became the 5th team to be eliminated from #CWC23's semi-final race. We are left with two contenders.

(Photo: PTI/Altered by The Quint)

Afghanistan became the fifth team to be eliminated from the semi-final sprint of the 2023 ICC World Cup, following their five-wicket defeat to South Africa today (10 November).

Earlier, the quartet of England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Netherlands were eliminated, while the trio of India, South Africa and Australia had already confirmed their participation in the competition’s next stage.

So, we are now left with only two teams fighting for the last available slot – New Zealand and Pakistan.

Where Do the Two Teams Stand?

New Zealand are placed fourth with 10 points in nine games, whilst with 8 points in as many games, Pakistan are in the fifth position. With a win over England on 11 November, Babar Azam’s team will be level with the Kiwis on points, but they have a massive Net Run Rate (NRR) disadvantage. Pakistan’s NRR is only +0.036, whilst that of Kane Williamson’s side is +0.743.

How Can Pakistan Qualify?

Let us have a look at the calculations of two scenarios – Pakistan batting first, and Pakistan bowling first.

1. Batting First:

• If Pakistan score 300 runs – They need to beat England by approximately 287 runs, that is, bowl England out for only 13 runs!

• If Pakistan score 400 runs – They need to beat England by approximately 300 runs. That is, Pakistan will have a chance to qualify if they bowl England out for under 100 runs.

• If Pakistan score 500 runs – They need to beat England by approximately 390 runs.

2. Bowling First:

Pakistan’s only hope is to bat first and score big, because if they bowl first, they will be all but out of the race. But here’s what mathematics says:

• If England score less than 100 runs – Pakistan will need to chase it down in approximately 2.3 overs.

• If England score around 300 runs – Pakistan will need to chase it down in approximately 6 overs.

What Do New Zealand Need To Do?

Start preparing for the semi-final against India. And also, hope Pakistan’s greatest-ever and England’s worst-ever performance don’t coincide on the same day – 11 November.

Who Will Face Whom in the Semi-Final?

Should there be no major surprises, this is how the semi-final roster will look like:

Semi-Final 1 – India vs New Zealand at Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai (15 November)

Semi-Final 2 – South Africa vs Australia at Eden Gardens, Kolkata (16 November)