World Cup 2023: Qualification Scenarios – Can Pakistan Qualify for Semi-Finals?

With New Zealand's big win, Pakistan are now nearly out of the #CWC23 semi-finals race. Here's how they can qualify.

ICC World Cup 2023: How Can Pakistan Still Qualify for the Semi-Finals?

(Photo: PTI)

The semi-final race of the 2023 ICC World Cup is approaching its conclusion, as with a massive win over Sri Lanka, New Zealand are all but through to the next stage of the competition.

While Pakistan hoped for a Sri Lankan triumph, Kusal Mendis’ team let them down, succumbing to a five-wicket defeat. After bowling them out for a meagre score of 171, New Zealand chased the total down in only 23.2 overs.

So, we are left with one big question – Can Pakistan still qualify?

Where Do Pakistan Currently Stand?

Pakistan are still holding on to the fifth position, with eight points in as many matches. A win against England in their last fixture – which will be played in Kolkata’s Eden Gardens on 11 November – will see them drawing level with New Zealand on 10 points.

Yet, they have a massive Net Run Rate (NRR) disadvantage. Pakistan’s NRR is currently +0.036, whereas courtesy of today’s win, New Zealand’s NRR has sky-rocketed to +0.743.

What Do Pakistan Need To Do To Qualify for Semi-Finals?

Firstly, play for the greatest miracle in the history of the sport.

But on strictly cricket terms, it is important to note that NRR calculations are dynamic, and will depend on how many runs both Pakistan and England score in the last match. Let us have a look at the calculations of two scenarios – Pakistan batting first, and Pakistan bowling first.

1. Batting First:

• If Pakistan score 300 runs – They need to beat England by approximately 287 runs, that is, bowl England out for only 13 runs!

• If Pakistan score 400 runs – They need to beat England by approximately 300 runs. That is, Pakistan will have a chance to qualify if they bowl England out for under 100 runs.

• If Pakistan score 500 runs – They need to beat by England by approximately 390 runs. That is, England must be bowled out for around 110 runs.

2. Bowling First:

Pakistan’s only hope is to bat first and score big, because if they bowl first, they will be all but out of the race. But for numbers’ sake, let us have a look at the requisition:

• If England score less than 100 runs – Pakistan will need to chase it down in approximately 2.3 overs.

• If England score around 300 runs – Pakistan will need to chase it down in approximately 6 overs.