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On the off chance that India lose to Zimbabwe in their last Super 12 match at the T20 World Cup, can India still qualify for the semifinals? YES.
Is there still a chance that South Africa could get eliminated, and either Bangladesh or Pakistan make it to the semis? YES.
All the possibilities from here on, explained in one detailed graphic.
Note: The following calculations have been made assuming that no other match in the Super 12s gets washed out or abandoned.
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Matches remaining: 1
Versus: Zimbabwe
If India WIN their last match: Will definitely qualify for the semis.
Will also qualify as the top team in Group 2 unless South Africa wins both their remaining matches against Pakistan and Netherlands.
If India LOSE their last match:
India will still qualify for the semis unless -
Bangladesh wins their last match and ends up with a better Net Run Rate (NRR) than India
Or Pakistan wins both their remaining matches and ends up with a better NRR than India
The Net Run Rates of the three teams right now are as follows:
India: +0.730
Bangladesh: -1.276
Pakistan: 0.765
Matches remaining: 2
Versus: Pakistan and Netherlands
If they WIN BOTH of their remaining matches: Will definitely qualify for the semis as the top team in Group 2
If they WIN ONE of their remaining matches: Will definitely qualify for the semis
If they LOSE BOTH of their remaining matches: Will definitely crash out of the World Cup. India will then definitely qualify for the semis, along with either Bangladesh or Pakistan.
Matches remaining: 1
Versus: Pakistan
If Bangladesh WIN their last match:
They will still not qualify for the semis unless -
South Africa loses both their remaining matches against Pakistan and Netherlands
Or, India loses against Zimbabwe AND Bangladesh has a higher Net Run Rate than India
If Bangladesh LOSE their last match: They will definitely crash out of the World Cup.
Matches remaining: 1
Versus: India
Zimbabwe cannot qualify for the semis even if they win their last match.
Matches remaining: 2
Versus: South Africa and Bangladesh
If Pakistan WIN BOTH of their remaining matches:
They will still not qualify for the semis unless -
South Africa loses both their remaining matches against Pakistan and Netherlands
Or, India loses against Zimbabwe AND Pakistan has a higher Net Run Rate than India
If they WIN ONE of their remaining matches: They will definitely crash out of the World Cup.
If they LOSE BOTH of their remaining matches: They will definitely crash out of the World Cup.
Matches remaining: 1
Versus: South Africa
Netherlands cannot qualify for the semis even if they win their last match.
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