COVID-19: Is India Entering the Endemic Stage?

The Big Story Podcast on COVID-19 India Endemic Stage. Image used for representation only.

(Photo: Arnika Kala/ The Quint)

For much of 2021, we have only heard about prediction of the next wave of COVID-19, about new variants like Delta and Delta Plus, and rising number of cases. But for the first time, we have received news that India may be in the final stages of this pandemic.

In an interview with The Wire on 25 August, the World Health Organization's top scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan said that India could have reached some stage endemicity.

Essentially, an endemic is defined as a stage in the pandemic when the virus is only present in small areas of the population and the rate of infection within that population is predictable. Some examples of endemic diseases are chicken pox, malaria, and even the common cold.

In the interview, Dr Swaminathan stated that it is likely that the current stage of COVID cases may continue with a few local surges and COVID may transform as an endemic by the end of 2022.

However, she pointed out that vaccinations and COVID-appropriate behaviour will be essential components to facilitate this transformation.

At present, only about 10 percent of India’s population has been fully vaccinated, which excludes 18-year-olds. The National Institute of Disaster Management recently also predicted a third wave is likely to peak in October.

So how close is India to enter the COVID endemic stage and what would that future look like? Will masks no longer be a part of society, will there be no future waves or variants?

To answer these questions, for today’s episode, we spoke to Gautam Menon, a Professor at the Departments of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University. Tune in !