Podcast | What Do Exit Polls Say & Can We Trust the Predictions?

Counting day is still three days away and until that the closest we have to some answers are exit poll predictions.

(Photo: The Quint)

There’s a whole lot of suspense on the political front. Who will win and who will lose the Assembly elections in the five states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh and India’s newest state Telangana? Counting day is still three days away and until that, the closest we have to some answers are the exit poll predictions.

Good news for Congress in Rajasthan, since they seem to be getting a clear majority according to most exit polls. The state has seen a 25-year trend of alternating between the BJP and the Congress and as we already know one of the biggest issues of the BJP government headed by Vasundhara Raje is anti-incumbency. Republic TV-CVoter, predicted a thumping majority for the Congress. The India Today-Axis poll also predicted an easy win for Congress.

There seems to be a very close fight between the Congress and the BJP in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Congress.

For MP, three out six exit polls gave it to the Congress in a neck-and-neck fight. Zee News has predicted 126 seats for BJP, which means a comeback for Shivraj Singh Chouhan for the 4th time but ABP-CSDS predicted the exact opposite – that is 126 seats for the Congress, which if proves to be true, will be quite a surprise for the BJP.

Some confusing predictions have come for Chhattisgarh as well with CSDS predicting BJP's win but the rest showing a close fight. In the event of a hung assembly in the state, Ajit Jogi and BSP combine are hoping to play the kingmaker.

Only Republic TV- CVoter conducted the exit polls in Mizoram where Mizo National Front emerged victorious. But there is  not much scope for comparison with any other surveys. The Congress which is tailing behind in this single prediction has already had two terms in the state.

And as for Telangana, all exit polls indicate a clear majority for Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) for the second time with the Congress-led Prajakutami or grand-alliance trailing behind. For those who don’t know, Telangana’s poll was due next year but Chandrashekhar Rao dissolved the state Assembly on 6 September, which is supposedly his lucky date. The BJP which although is not the main contender, is expected to swing some percentage of vote share its way.

All that being said, exit polls predictions are only the outcome of small sample groups. It may go right and as evident from predictions from previous polls, it may go very, very wrong. But until results, this is all we have.

Will Congress win 2 out of the 5 states? Guess we’ll have to wait till 11 December.