With Unprecedented Snowfall Shortage, Winter Drought Grips the Himalayas

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. Image used for representation only.

(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

The iconic snow-capped peaks in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, usually adorned with a winter white blanket, are noticeably bare this year, especially in the western Himalayas. This abnormal winter, marked by minimal or no snowfall, has triggered concerns among farmers whose livelihoods heavily rely on agriculture. The HKH region, which is highly dependent on agriculture, faces severe consequences due to the direct impact of low snowfall. 

Traditionally, snow is a vital source of sustenance in mountainous regions, providing insulation for dormant crops, supporting root growth, preventing frost penetration, and safeguarding soil from erosion. The scarcity of snowfall, exacerbated by warmer temperatures this season, is poised to have adverse ecological effects on water and agroforestry in the Himalayan region. Even if there is a substantial snowfall in the upcoming months, it might be insufficient to compensate for the existing deficit. The dwindling snow accumulation raises concerns about reduced 'runoff,' contributing to diminished water flow into rivers and streams crucial for agriculture.

Glaciers Are Vital in Sustaining Downstream Water Resources

Mountain communities in the HKH region already grapple with multiple challenges, including crop failure, livestock loss, fodder shortages, and the threat of disasters, leading to psychological distress. The current dry winter intensifies these challenges, following years of below-average snowpack accumulation, promising to strain water resources further in the coming spring and summer. Notable cases include Nepal's Humla District, where the high-altitude Limi Valley experienced an unusual early snowfall in September, followed by a pronounced lack of precipitation. Similarly, northern Pakistan's Central Hunza, a region typically covered in meters of snow at this time of year, has seen no snowfall in this warmer-than-usual winter.

The underlying cause of this unusual weather pattern is attributed to global heating, a vital component of the climate crisis, influencing La Niña – El Niño conditions and disrupting the critical 'Western Disturbance.' This meteorological phenomenon significantly impacts the hydrological regime of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, affecting water security for the region's inhabitants.

The observed rise in global temperatures, with 2023 recording the hottest global temperatures, further accentuates the urgency of addressing climate change. The consequences of these temperature anomalies are manifested in weakened and delayed Western Disturbance, impacting winter precipitation, crop production, and snowfall in the western Himalayan region.

Understanding and monitoring the changing dynamics of the Western Disturbance are crucial for predicting snowfall in the Himalayas. The implications for glaciers in the HKH region are significant, as they are vital in feeding major rivers and sustaining downstream water resources. Adapting to these changes becomes imperative as the region experiences extended monsoons and shifting precipitation patterns. Swift decisions on water management, optimising food production, enhancing irrigation networks, and implementing Disaster Risk Reduction strategies are crucial steps to mitigate future water stress and ensure the resilience of Himalayan communities in the face of evolving climate challenges. 

Alarming Water Scarcity Sparks Climate Concerns 

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is facing an unprecedented winter drought, raising serious concerns about water security amid the escalating impacts of climate change. The absence of snowfall, a rare occurrence following the record-breaking global temperatures of 2023, is causing anxiety, especially in the western Himalayas, where typically snow-covered peaks now stand bare. 

Traditionally, snow accumulates from October or November until March, serving as a crucial water source, protecting crops from frost, and preventing soil erosion. The scarcity of snowfall disrupts this delicate balance, impacting water availability for agriculture and agroforestry during critical periods. Global warming, a significant contributor to the climate crisis, alters weather patterns, underscoring the HKH's water security vulnerability.

The consequences of low snowfall extend to agriculture, with mountain communities already grappling with crop failure, livestock losses, and fodder shortages. The dry winter compounds challenges following years of below-average snowpack accumulation, posing a threat to water resources in the upcoming spring and summer. 

The impact of changing weather patterns on the Western Disturbance, a crucial source of snowfall for HKH glaciers, raises concerns about downstream river hydrology. The decline in Western Disturbance activity poses a threat to the region's water security, with potential transboundary impacts on the Indus Water Treaty and water management for agriculture and power generation, especially for India and Pakistan. 

To respond to these challenges, urgent action is needed, including establishing a national program to monitor and understand the changing dynamics of the Western Disturbance. Credible scientific data is deemed essential to devise effective plans to address the looming threat and safeguard the water security of the Himalayan region. Amid this crisis, proactive measures and informed decision-making are crucial to mitigate the impacts of the winter drought on the delicate ecosystems and communities dependent on the Himalayan water resources. 

Consequences of the Winter Absence in Northwestern India 

As winter envelops the majestic hills of northwest India, the conspicuous absence of snow in renowned tourist havens like Gulmarg in Kashmir and Shimla in Himachal Pradesh has become a cause for concern among the public and experts. This unexpected departure from the traditional winter landscape now unravels a complex web of consequences far beyond aesthetics and tourism. 

The significance of snowfall in the Himalayan region goes beyond its picturesque appeal. It plays a crucial role in maintaining ecological equilibrium and sustaining various sectors of the local economy. Reduced snowfall in January, when the hills should be adorned with a pristine white blanket, raises alarms about potential repercussions.

The diminishing snowfall could adversely impact agriculture and tourism, two pillars of the region's economy. The snow, acting as a protective layer for crops, prevents frost damage and erosion, ensuring a robust agricultural yield. Simultaneously, the scenic allure of snow-covered landscapes attracts tourists, contributing significantly to the economy.

The unexpected dry spell during a critical winter period raises questions about climate patterns and their implications for the Himalayan ecosystem. Climate experts underscore the need for comprehensive studies to understand the broader ramifications of this unusual weather phenomenon. 

As the vanishing snow continues to perplex the region, it calls for heightened awareness, scientific inquiry, and proactive measures to address the evolving challenges. The delicate balance between nature and human activities in northwest India hinges on unravelling the enigma of disappearing snow and devising sustainable solutions for the well-being of the environment and the communities dependent on it. 

Nurturing Resilience: Addressing the Winter Drought in Himalayas for Sustainable Futures 

As the iconic snow-capped peaks stand bare, the concerns are not merely aesthetic; they extend to the foundations of agriculture, tourism, and the region's ecological integrity. The diminished snowfall, a result of abnormal weather patterns exacerbated by global heating, threatens the traditional sustenance mechanisms of mountain communities.

The intricate interplay between snow accumulation, glacier melt, and downstream river hydrology underscores the urgency for understanding and monitoring the changing dynamics of the Western Disturbance. This meteorological phenomenon, disrupted by climate change, holds the key to the water security of the Himalayan region. 

Amid the challenges of reduced runoff, agricultural losses, and heightened risks of disasters, a call for proactive measures and informed decision-making emerges. Establishing a national program to monitor the Western Disturbance and leveraging credible scientific data becomes imperative to navigate these uncertainties.

The winter drought is not just a climatic anomaly but a wake-up call to adapt swiftly to changing precipitation patterns and rising temperatures.

The resilience of Himalayan communities hinges on strategic water management, optimising food production, fortifying irrigation networks, and implementing robust Disaster Risk Reduction strategies. 

In these challenges, the imperative is clear – nurturing resilience. Swift action today can pave the way for sustainable futures in the Himalayas, ensuring that these awe-inspiring peaks continue to be a source of life and sustenance for future generations. 

(Anjal Prakash is a Clinical Associate Professor [Research] at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business [ISB]. He teaches sustainability at ISB and contributes to IPCC reports. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)