Why Phase 7 is Crucial for BJP to Repeat Its 2019 300+ Lok Sabha Tally

Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets others during a public meeting ahead of the seventh phase of Lok Sabha elections, in Kendrapara district, Wednesday, May 29, 2024.

(PTI Photo)

The all-important Phase Seven with 57 seats goes to polls on 1 June, which is the last day of voting for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, the same day when exit polls will be aired in the evening.

Perceived to be a one-sided election a month ago, “phans gayi hai” is now the phrase being used by some analysts, while others predict a Modi wave on 4 June.

Till Phase Six, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 278 seats in the 2019 elections, six seats above the majority mark of 272. By Phase Five, it had won 238 seats. It was only in Phase Six in 2019 that the BJP won 40 seats and crossed the simple majority mark.

By Phase Six, the game was over in 2019, but the BJP had crossed the halfway mark only marginally. Hence, Phase Seven this time could be the decider.

In 2019, the BJP lost 26 of the 282 seats it had won in 2014, a loss of around 10 percent, as the party had maxed out in many states. It gained additional seats in Eastern India to compensate for the losses.

This time as well, a loss of 10 percent of seats is very normal/natural from the base of 303 seats. But the party hopes to compensate for it from the south and east, as well as UP where it lost a few seats last time.

In Phase Seven, of the 57 seats which go to polls, the BJP won just 25 in 2019, less than 50 percent. This was amongst the worst phases of the BJP across the seven phases in 2019.

In Phase One, the BJP won only 39 percent, while in Phase Four and Seven, only 44 percent of the seats. Along with allies, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won 30, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc nine and non-aligned parties including the Trinamool Congress won 18.

UP, Bihar, Bengal, Odisha, and Punjab

In Phase Seven, 28 seats go to polls in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Himachal Pradesh. 13 seats will be polling in Punjab, and 15 in Bengal and Odisha combined. The BJP-led NDA swept the Hindi heartland states in 2019 winning 26 of the 30 on offer. It needs to maintain a winning streak without significant dents here.

In UP, the BJP is facing a stiff challenge from the INDIA bloc, i.e., the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress party alliance in the Purvanchal region from where the prime minister is contesting from Varanasi. In this region, smaller parties like OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, the NISHAD party (Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal), and the Apna Dal have a good presence.

The SP hopes to make a dent in the non-Yadav vote bank of the BJP by fielding fewer Yadav/Muslim candidates and more Other Backward Class candidates than the BJP in 2024. It is the same with the Jatav vote bank of the Bahujan Samaj Party.

In Bihar, the NDA had won all eight seats during the last phase but the Rashtriya Janata Dal won in the Rohtas region in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. Tejashwi hopes to swing the youth voters in his favour due to jobs created during his tenure as deputy chief minister and the decline in the popularity of Nitish Kumar. The BJP, on the other hand, hopes that PM Modi’s popularity and the mahila and labharthi factor will ensure a good performance.

In Bengal, till Phase Six, the BJP was leading with 18 out of 42 seats. In the seventh Phase, the TMC swept all nine seats in the Presidency/South East region and trumped the BJP 22-18 in the state. Modi is holding roadshows to make a dent in this TMC stronghold. The BJP must gain seats in Bengal to compensate for losses anticipated elsewhere.

In Odisha, the BJP won two and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) won four of the six seats on offer. The BJP has upped the ante on the BJD, which is considered a backer of the party in Parliament, helping it pass crucial bills in Rajya Sabha where it lacks a majority. Odisha holds simultaneous Vidhan Sabha polls, and to win more seats than the BJD, the BJP needs to improve its tally in the legislative assembly as well.

Punjab, where 13 seats go to polls, could prove to be tricky for the BJP. It couldn’t do well in 2019 even when the nationalism fervour gripped the nation. In a quadrangular contest, the BJP hopes that the Sikh vote splits between the Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress party, and the Shiromani Akali Dal, while the Hindu voters consolidate behind the saffron party. It expects to hold onto the two seats it won in 2019, but it won’t be easy.

Phase Seven is crucial for the BJP as it does not want to leave anything to chance. It is also crucial for the opposition to restrict the BJP/NDA to less than 300 seats. This phase could well decide the course of the 2024 elections.

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X (formerly Twitter). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)