2019 Election Results: Biggest Losers And Their Tactical Mistakes

As BJP emerged victor, it was evident that the Bengaluru show of strength was nothing more than a good photo-op.

As BJP emerged victor on Thursday, it was evident that the Bengaluru show of strength was nothing more than a good photo-op.

(Photo: The Quint)

It was exactly a year ago when leaders of 20-odd Opposition parties stood together on a stage in Bengaluru to celebrate the formation of the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government in Karnataka. The bonhomie displayed at this famous get together had beamed out a powerful message that these supposedly “like-minded” parties  were ready to put aside their egos and self-interest to forge a viable coalition to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party.

On Thursday, 23 May, as the BJP registered a stunning victory in the elections, it was evident that the Bengaluru show of strength was eventually nothing more than a good photo-op. Today, they stand defeated and bruised.

Instead, the story of this Lok Sabha election is the virtual decimation of the Congress party, total rout of the Left parties and the diminution of powerful regional forces like the Trinamool Congress, the Telugu Desam Party, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

The results have once again proved that the Opposition parties are paying a heavy price for their inability or unwillingness to offer a cohesive and credible alternative with a strong leader who had the capacity and the charisma to pose a serious challenge to Narendra Modi. They have clearly failed in their avowed resolve to show the door to the Modi-led BJP.

BJP’s Expanding Footprint in West Bengal

While the BJP has gone on to sweep the Hindi heartland states it had won in 2014, the deep inroads it has made in West Bengal by winning 18 seats is easily the big takeaway of this election. Though Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is marginally ahead with a tally of 22 seats, she now has to contend with a strong new challenger in the BJP, which has reshaped the state’s politics by openly pushing its Hindu card and stoking communal passions.

Realising there was strong public resentment against what was seen as minority appeasement by Mamata Banerjee, the BJP worked assiduously on the ground to expand its footprint by polarising the electorate.

The BJP was helped by the fact that the Left was wiped out in the state while CPM’s disillusioned workers switched over to the saffron party as it was seen to be fighting the Trinamool Congress.

Not only did the Trinamool chief fail to gauge how the BJP’s exploitation of Hindu sentiment had wide public acceptance but her single-point agenda to extinguish the Communists also provided an opening for the BJP to put down roots in West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee will have to necessarily reshape her policies and strategy before the next Assembly election in light of the rise of the right wing in her home state.

Rahul’s Failures and Congress’ Tactical Mistakes

Then there’s Congress President Rahul Gandhi who has, once again, proved to be a non-starter in this election. Not only was he defeated in his stronghold Amethi, he  failed to cement a partnership with the SP and the BSP in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh had a shaky alliance in the other important state, Bihar, and could not arrive at an understanding either with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress or the Left parties in West Bengal or the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi.

Worse, the Congress also failed to consolidate on the gains it made in last year’s Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The party recorded  spectacular losses in all three Hindi heartland states where it was washed away by the Modi wave.

Rahul Gandhi’s campaign on the Rafale deal boomeranged while his references to the agrarian distress, unemployment and the ailing economy did not resonate as the electorate was willing to overlook these deficiencies of the Modi government in favor of the pitch on nationalism.

For instance, it was not clear why the Congress was battling it out in Uttar Pradesh. The party was dogged by its perennial dilemma – should it work to revive the party or should it forget its long-term plan and focus on defeating to take on the BJP. It got derailed when Mayawati and Akhilesh failed to accommodate the Congress in its Mahagathbandhan.

As a knee-jerk reaction, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was hurriedly appointed party general secretary and given charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, a move which proved to be a proverbial case of too little, too late.

If the Congress was hoping that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s appointment would pressurise Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav to admit them into their alliance, it failed in this mission.

The Congress then went on to make the tactical mistake of fielding candidates in all 80 seats when it was evident that the party did not have the organisational structure or a social base to be seen as a serious player. Former Congress President Sonia Gandhi was the party’s lone winner in Uttar Pradesh.

The Mahagathbandhan’s Lacklustre Performance

On the other hand, the performance of the SP-BSP-RLD combine has been below par though the three parties could theoretically boast of a strong social coalition of Yadavs, Muslims, Jatavs and Jats, which had the potential to stop the BJP juggernaut.

But this alliance clearly failed to deliver on the ground as its caste arithmetic was no match for what the BJP had to offer: A strong decisive leader in Modi and an equally powerful narrative in Hindutva-infused nationalism which captured the imagination of the public after the Pulwama attack and India’s retaliatory air strike in Pakistan. As a result, the BJP went on to win 62 seats while the Mahagathbandhan’s tally was a mere 15.

The Uttar Pradesh verdict has dealt a big blow to Mayawati’s ambition of playing a larger role at the national stage though her core support base of Jatavs remained loyal to her and her party organisation is in fairly good shape.

Akhilesh Yadav, whose political career has taken yet another beating after the Samajwadi Party’s poor showing in the 2017 Assembly polls, has a lot to introspect about.

His party organisation has been weakened after his estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav walked out and set up shop on his own, taking away a chunk of the Samajwadi Party cadre. Shivpal Yadav did not win any seats but he did play spoiler in Badaun and Ferozabad where the Samajwadi Party candidates were defeated. Only time will tell if the one-time rivals-turned friends SP and BSP will stick together for the 2020 Assembly polls.

Problematic Partnership With RJD in Bihar

With regards to Bihar, the Congress seemingly had a reasonably strong alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and a host of smaller parties. But the partnership unravelled during the course of seat negotiations.

It was only after several weeks of intense deliberations that the Congress agreed to contest nine seats as against 11 it had demanded but this deal was sealed only after notification for two rounds of elections in Bihar had been issued by the Election Commission. But the delay in forging a consensus was only part of the story.

The allies failed to project a united front which was clear when Rahul Gandhi and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav did not campaign together.

While the Congress brought little to the table, the RJD’s vote base of Yadavs and Muslim also did not hold. The absence of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav hurt the party as Yadavs were not confident about Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership and, therefore, looked around for different options.

The fact that the RJD won no seats in Bihar, where Lalu Prasad Yadav was once king, has put a serious question mark over his son’s political future. But, importantly, the Bihar result could lead to the gradual disintegration of the RJD as its cadre may be tempted to look for greener pastures.

(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist who can be reached at @anitaakat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses, nor is responsible for them.)