By-polls: Can the INDIA Bloc Keep Up Its Momentum in Uttar Pradesh?

Was the shift of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav votes to INDIA in the Lok Sabha elections permanent or a one-off?

INDIA bloc leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi.

(Photo: PTI)

The much-awaited by-polls for all the 10 seats lying vacant in Uttar Pradesh except one will set the tone for the Assembly elections due in the first quarter of 2027. In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, Akhilesh Yadav led the INDIA bloc to victory, bagging 43 of the 80 seats in the state. The BJP-led NDA could win only 36 seats, a reduction of 28 seats compared to 2019, costing it a simple majority in the Lok Sabha.

The defeat in what became a highly localised election was a big setback for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, touted as a potential successor to Narendra Modi, and came despite the inauguration of the Ram Mandir only four months prior. Knives were drawn out in the party, with Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya questioning the leadership and party’s strategy, emphasising that the sangathan is bigger than individuals.

The nine Assembly seats where the by-polls will be held on 13 November are Sisamau, Katehri, Kundarki, and Karhal (all won by the Samajwadi Party in the 2022 Assembly polls); Khair, Phulpur, and Ghaziabad (won by the BJP); Manjhwa (won by the NISHAD Party) and Meerapur in Muzaffarnagar (won by the Rashtriya Lok Dal). The counting of votes will take place on 23 November. The RLD hopped from the SP-led alliance to the NDA before the general elections.

So, overall, the NDA won five and the INDIA bloc won four seats in 2022.

All the seats except for Sisamau fell vacant after their MLAs were elected as MPs in the Lok Sabha polls. In Sisamau, SP MLA Irfan Solanki was disqualified after being convicted in a criminal case. By-polls in Milkipur, Ayodhya, have not been announced. The Election Commission has cited that there is an election petition in the High Court against SP leader Awadhesh Prasad filed by former BJP MLA Baba Gorakhnath, who lost to him in the 2022 Assembly polls.

⁠The data around assembly segment-wise leads for Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 general elections are not available yet. Of the nine Lok Sabha seats in which these nine Vidhan Sabha seats fall, the BJP won 4 seats: Ghaziabad (Ghaziabad), Phulpur (Phulpur), Kanpur (Sisamau) , Aligarh (Khair-SC). Its allies, the Apna Dal and the RLD, won the Mirzapur (Majhawan) and Bijnor (Meerapur) Lok Sabha seats respectively. The SP won Mainpuri (Karhal), Ambedkar Nagar (Katehari), and Sambhal (Kundarki).

The SP and Congress alliance gained a significant chunk of the non-Yadav OBC and the non-Jatav votes in the general elections. The BJP bagged around 29 percent of the non-Jatav vote (-19 percent), 59 percent of the Other OBC vote (-13 percent), and 61 percent of the Kurmi/Koeri vote (-19 percent).

On the other hand, the SP and Congress received the most non-Jatav support (56 percent), pushing the BJP to second place and the Bahujan Samaj Party to third. The alliance also received 34 percent each of the Other OBC vote and the Kurmi/Koeri vote.

Three of these seats — Karhal, Kundarki, and Sisamau — are very strong seats for the SP, having won it three out of three times in the last three Assembly elections — 2012, 2017 and 2022. One seat — Kathehari — has been won by the SP twice in the last three elections. Ghaziabad, Khair, and Phulpur are strong seats for the BJP, they have won it twice in the last three polls since delimitation in 2008.

In by-polls, usually, the incumbent government has an edge. It remains to be seen whether the shift of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav votes to the SP-Congress alliance is permanent or was a one-off instance.

The ⁠role of the BSP is also critical as it damaged the BJP more in the 2024 general elections, ie, in 31 seats for the NDA, versus the 16 seats of the INDIA bloc, recording more votes than the margin of victory.

While the SP has announced candidates for six seats, causing some heartburn in the Congress' camp, the BJP is yet to finalise the alliance and name candidates. Yogi Adityanath has taken full charge of the by-polls, naming key lieutenants as observers. The discontent in UP BJP right after the results seems to have faded, but internal sabotage cannot be ruled out if factionalism is not managed properly.

These by-polls have become a prestige battle for both the NDA and the INDIA bloc. While the latter will aim to maintain its momentum from the Lok Sabha polls (somewhat dented by the defeat in Haryana), the BJP-led NDA will look to recover lost ground.

It’s also a do-or-die battle for Yogi Adityanath.

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)