UP Elections: Why Phases 6 & 7 Will Be the Most Decisive Rounds

The phase brings to light the ticket distribution strategy of the three main parties.

Akhilesh Yadav (left), Mayawati (centre), and Yogi Adityanath (right).

(Image altered by The Quint)

The polling for the sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election took place today. Fifty-seven seats spanning across 10 districts – Ambedkar Nagar, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Balliain – in Purvanchal voted today.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 46 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) five, the Samajwadi Party (SP) two, Congress one and others won three seats in 2017. In 2012, the SP had won the maximum 32 out of these 57 seats. The BJP recorded 41% vote share, the SP 21% and the BSP 22% in 2017 in the same phase.

With ground reports suggesting a close contest, the sixth and seventh phases may emerge as decisive. Both the BJP (Apna Dal-S and Nishad Party) and the SP (Rajbhar’s SBSP and Apnal Dal-K) have formed alliances with caste-based parties to romp them home.

The Ticket Distribution Strategy

This is the only phase where the BSP won more seats than the SP in 2017, with an average SC population of 19%. That BSP chief Mayawati is fighting an existential battle can be ignored at the own peril of the BJP and the SP.

The phase also brings to light the ticket distribution strategy of the three main parties.

This election, there has been a lot of buzz around how the SP has made efforts to shed its Muslim-Yadav image, and how the BJP has moved on from being a party of upper-castes to becoming a champion of backward castes. The data, though, shows otherwise.

One has to understand that ticket distribution is based on:

• The percentage of the population of a particular caste/community/religion

• The percentage support received by a party from caste/community/religion

• Target voter segment that a party wishes to woo

• The influence or dominance of caste groups

Professor Arvind Kumar has calculated the number of tickets granted by the three main parties to different caste and communities. Taking his research further, interesting observations can be made.

Have SP & BJP Been Able to Change Their Image?

The SP is banking on the strategy of jiski jitni sankhya bhari uski utni hissedaari (each group's share is according to their population). Going by this logic, it has given tickets to 42% OBCs (for a population of 41%), 20% upper castes (for a population of 19%), 16% Muslims (for a population of 19%) and Dalits 22% (for a population of 21%).

The party has fielded 13% Yadav candidates. Along with 16% Muslims, it has given tickets to 29% Muslim-Yadav candidates, which is equal to their combined population. In effect, this neutralises the party’s attempt to shed its Muslim-Yadav tag.

On the other hand, the BJP is banking on its core (traditional) vote bank of upper castes for ticket distribution. As many as 43% of its candidates are Brahmins, Rajputs and other forward castes, which is more than twice their population.

Since the BJP doesn’t give tickets to Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, except for one given by its ally Apna Dal, it has a buffer of 19% tickets that it needs to allocate to some other group. The BJP is diverting all of this Muslim quota to upper castes. So, upper-caste representation is 19% (their population), plus 19% (Muslim quota) plus another 5%, which is equal to 43%.

While the party claims it is a champion of backward castes, it has given only 35% tickets to OBCs, including Yadavs, against their population of 41%. The numbers show that the BJP has not yet been able to shed its Brahmin-Bania party image.

Caste Considerations

Data on caste-wise ticket distribution. 

Source: Arvind Kumar

Mayawati’s BSP has given 16% of its tickets to Jatavs, versus a population of 12%. She hails from the community and it is natural that the party gives more representation to the community.

Lopsided Distribution

Even in terms of the vote blocks of parties, the ticket distribution seems lopsided. As many as 53% of BJP’s voters are OBCs, while the tickets granted are 35%. On the other hand, 31% of its voters belong to the upper castes, while the share of tickets given to them stands at 43%.

Only 5% of the SP’s voters are upper caste, but it has given tickets to 20% Brahmins and Rajputs. And though half of the SP’s voters are Muslims, the share of tickets granted is only 16%.

While 59% of BSP’s voters belong to the SC community, the party has given only 23% of its tickets to Dalit candidates.

Notably, as many as 85 out of 403 (21%) seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes in the Uttar Pradesh assembly. But we rarely see parties giving more tickets to the group. The BSP and the SP have given 93 and 89 tickets, but this is just a token increase.

(Source: Author's calculations)

SP Can't Win Without Snatching BJP's Votes

In an effort to expand its vote base, Mayawati has given almost half of its tickets to upper castes and Muslims, which is 10% more than their population. This representation is higher than in the SP for Muslims (+5%) and for upper castes (7%).

This is likely to create issues for the SP, which is banking on disillusionment among Brahmins and consolidation of the minority vote to take on the BJP. The BSP’s strategy could lead to a split of votes, thus helping the BJP.

The BSP is clearly not focusing a lot on OBCs (28% tickets) because of severe competition between the BJP (35% tickets) and the SP (43% tickets) for this segment.

The SP has given 20% tickets to upper-caste candidates with an aim to make a dent in the BJP’s core vote as it is unlikely to win Uttar Pradesh without snatching votes from the BJP.

Ticket distribution by parties. 

SP's 'Ambedkarwadi' Strategy

The BJP has focused on retaining its non-Yadav OBC vote bank. While it appears that it has given fewer tickets to OBCs, a deeper analysis shows that this is due to the fact that it has ignored Yadavs (only 2% tickets for a 10% population). Its NYOBC ticket distribution share is 33%, which is a tad higher than their strength in the state.

Among Dalits, the BJP has clearly given preference to non-Jatavs, who have been moving away from the BSP and towards the saffron party; the BJP has ignored Jatavs, the core vote block of Mayawati.

On the other hand, the SP has hedged its bets, giving equal representation to Jatavs as well as non-Jatavs as it desperately needs its ‘Ambedkarwadi’ strategy to click.

Influential Communities Get Preference

Overall, 30% of tickets have been given by the three parties to upper caste candidates. This is one-and-a-half times their population.

Both the SP and the BJP have given tickets to 4% Jats, while their state population is just 2%. Similarly, though 8% to 9% tickets have been given to Kurmis by the BJP and the SP, their population is 6%.

Dominant communities like Brahmins, Rajputs, Jats influence other voters as well, and hence, parties normally give them more tickets to satisfy their ego.

An RSS big shot once told me that though elections are 50% about ticket distribution, achieving perfection in the same is an illusion. Whose strategy will work? We will know only on 10 March.

(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)