4 July Will Be Pivotal for UK, Victory Won’t Be Easy for Both Labour & Tory

This is the first time the UK is facing a July election which was last held in 1945, after World War II.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

In a bold, surprising and audacious move, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak came out of 10 Downing Street on Wednesday evening, 22 May, under pouring rain and called a surprise general election for 4 July 2024.

During his address to the nation, Sunak said, “Now is the time for Britain to choose its future,” claiming that Tories could be trusted.

Ironically, the drenched PM was almost drowned out by speakers blasting the New Labour anthem, ‘Things can only get better...’ by the anti-Brexit campaigner Steve Ray.

The optics were not great for the PM.

In this high-stakes gamble, the Conservatives are 20 points behind Labour and have been so for several months. It is a fact that no PM has made a comeback from being 20 points behind.

For Labour leader Keir Starmer, despite being ahead in polls, this will be a mammoth fight to win power for the party after 15 long years.

The First July Election, Since World War II

While the surprise announcement was welcomed by a delighted Labour party, that was wanting an early election, senior Tories are shocked and concerned that their party could face an electoral erosion.

Some MPs are even considering submitting letters of no confidence in the PM.

This is the first time the UK is facing a July election which was last held in 1945, after World War II, when Tory PM Winston Churchill was defeated by Labour’s Clement Atlee.

Starmer, widely expected to become the next prime minister, told voters that the election will give them the opportunity to bring about change. He said,

“Here it is. The future of the country in your hands. On 4 July you have the choice, and together we can stop the chaos, we can turn the page, we can start to rebuild Britain and change our country.”

After transforming his party since its wipeout five years ago, under Jeremy Corbyn, this will be Starmer’s biggest battle, as Labour has the reputation of snatching defeat out of the hands of victory.

Sunak, on the other hand, appears to be fighting this election, focussing on the belief that the country should trust the Conservatives in difficult times, while warning that Starmer’s promises cannot be trusted.

“This election will take place at a time when the world is more dangerous than it has been since the end of the cold war. These uncertain times call for a clear plan and bold action to chart a course to a secure future. You must choose in this election who has that plan,” Sunak said.

The Many (Presumed) Reasons Behind the Sudden Decision

While many observers expected an autumn election, most believed he would call an election after completing two years as the PM in October.

Earlier this year, he had said that his “working assumption” had been that elections would take place in the second half of the year, which was being assumed as October or November at the earliest.

So why did he make this sudden decision?

There were some recent indications of light at the end of the tunnel, with inflation levels falling and his flagship Rwanda immigration scheme showing signs of some success.

But was he aware of something that most are struggling to put their finger on? Did he take this risk at a time when Tories are so far behind Labour, because he believes the outlook would never be better than this summer to face voters?

As an observer noted, this is a PM who likes spreadsheets and data. On the morning of the election announcement, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that inflation had hit the all-important two percent target.

This could be taken to voters pointing to stable energy and food pricing showcasing Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal success. But, while unemployment is currently low, it is expected to rise by the year end.

Significantly, the PM said the first flight to Rwanda will only go in July, which clearly, will be after the elections. Sunak knows he faces legal impediments to his Rwanda scheme. Starmer, on the contrary, has promised to end the Rwanda scheme if he comes to power.

Another gossip doing the rounds is that Sunak is not enjoying his time in No 10, having to handle the terrible mess left behind after all these years of Tory rule and Liz Truss tanking the economy.

And now his wife’s fortune has increased from £120M to £650M, according to the latest Sunday Times Rich List, and he is richer than the King. He may just want to move to a luxurious life in Silicon Valley!

The Road to Victory Won’t Be Easy

Whatever the reasons for a July election, 4 July is a pivotal moment for the country after multiple years of Conservative rule that began with Boris Johnson’s landslide victory in 2019 on the promise to “get Brexit done”.

A lot has changed since then and has taken the country into chaos, including the pandemic, Johnson’s rule-breaking, the Covid enquiry, other financial misdemeanours, and the disastrous six weeks of Truss.

Though Labour is 20 points ahead right now, the ride to Downing Street might not be as smooth.

Starmer will have to lay out clear plans on the economy, the cost-of-living crisis, saving the National Health Service, and immigration. The war in the Middle East is a factor too. Labour has a large chunk of Muslim voters and youth, who are also disappointed by their position of not yet standing with countries like Ireland, Spain, and Norway in recognising the statehood of Palestine.

In such a scenario, it will be interesting to observe the role of the Liberal Democrats.

Labour and Lib Dems have tactically voted on many seats during by-elections, but will the Lib Dem support Labour at the final hour?

There are still six weeks to find out. In the meantime, parties will publish their manifestos setting out their policies about three to four weeks before polling day.

Sunak and Starmer are expected to go head-to-head on TV debates. They are also likely to want to squeeze out the smaller parties and make it a two-way contest.

In previous years, the Tories and Labour have sent deputies in their place when other parties are involved.

Finally, the elections have arrived for a wearied country that now is looking for change.

(Nabanita Sircar is a senior journalist based in London. She tweets at @sircarnabanita. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)