Trump Defeats Harris: A Precursory Look at What Swung the US Election for Him

What helped Trump was a shift among Hispanic and Black voters, notably in areas impacted by economic challenges.

While swing states stole the spotlight, Trump’s broader appeal reached demographics and regions not typically aligned with conservative candidates.

(Photo: PTI)

Donald Trump has defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election and secured a second term as president, marking a shift towards conservative priorities amid ongoing economic and social challenges.

As the night unfolded, a handful of critical swing states tipped the scales in a tightly contested race. Florida came through early for Trump, delivering 30 electoral votes in a decisive win. Known for its demographic diversity with a history of swinging between parties, Florida was a must-win for Trump’s campaign, and his success underscored the resonance of his economic message in a state where many are feeling the pressures of inflation and rising living costs.

Arizona, a border state with complex immigration issues, where Trump’s firm stance on border security continued to appeal to a significant portion of the electorate, saw many voters connect with Trump’s hardline approach.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, Trump’s influence remained strong even amid demographic changes. North Carolina added its 16 electoral votes to Trump’s column, bolstering his support across the south and reinforcing his hold on traditionally conservative territory.

But the night’s tension centred around Pennsylvania, with its all-important 19 electoral votes. Known for its working-class base and varied electorate, Pennsylvania became a fiercely contested battleground, with both campaigns vying intensely for its support. In the end, Trump took that as well.

While swing states stole the spotlight, Trump’s broader appeal reached demographics and regions not typically aligned with conservative candidates, contributing to his strong showing. His campaign saw gains among young voters, rural communities, and even some Hispanic and Black voter groups, often overlooked or assumed to lean towards the Democratic Party.

Trump’s success with young voters, particularly in states like Texas, Ohio, and even parts of California’s Central Valley, came from addressing their pressing concerns: economic security, job prospects, and inflation. While Harris drew many younger voters in urban centres, the former president's promises of economic recovery resonated with those in smaller cities and suburban areas, where immediate financial issues have trumped social ones.

Rural voter turnout also surged in places like Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Trump’s focus on economic stability, traditional values, and a revitalised agricultural sector appears to have inspired many rural voters who hadn’t participated in previous elections. His straightforward approach and emphasis on job creation might have struck a chord with these communities, leading to a high rural turnout.

Unexpectedly, Trump was helped by a shift among Hispanic and Black voters, particularly in areas impacted by economic challenges. In places like New Mexico and Alabama, his messages around community safety and job creation gained traction.

This diverse coalition—young, rural, and minority voters—helped Trump gain traction in regions that pundits hadn’t anticipated, underscoring the far-reaching appeal of his economy and security-focused platform.

Trump’s path to victory relied on maintaining leads in key battlegrounds. These gains painted a map increasingly shaded red through the South and Midwest.

For Harris, the path has been nothing short of an uphill climb. Early in the race, her team focused heavily on retaining slim leads in states like Nevada and Michigan, while working to drive high turnout among young and urban voters. Her campaign focused on healthcare, social justice, and the rising cost of living—issues resonating deeply in urban centres.

Yet, despite strong early numbers among young voters, she saw tight leads slip in critical states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. In states like North Carolina and Michigan, the losses marked turning points. In the end, Harris’s coalition of diverse urban and suburban voters couldn’t match the powerful rural turnout that bolstered Trump.

The map of this year's election tells a story of a nation at a crossroads. Urban areas leaned blue, while much of rural America turned red. Trump’s victory will mark the beginning of a new chapter in American politics, one driven by renewed conservative energy and priorities.

What about India?

Trump's triumph in 2024 could significantly impact India, with his “America First” approach likely to heighten global trade tensions and affect market dynamics. Higher tariffs and a potential withdrawal from international agreements may disrupt global supply chains, especially if tensions with China escalate.

This restructuring could raise production costs, slow economic growth, and create labour shortages in sectors like tech and healthcare, which rely on skilled foreign workers. If Trump reintroduces immigration restrictions, including limits on H-1B visas, India’s IT and tech industries might struggle, as they heavily depend on skilled labour that has access to the US.

However, India may find strategic opportunities within these challenges. As Trump seeks to decouple from China, India could attract American firms looking to diversify supply chains, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub with favourable policies. While trade with the US could see strain due to retaliatory tariffs affecting exports like IT services and pharmaceuticals, a focus on bilateral defence ties may bring benefits.

The shared goal of countering China in the Indo-Pacific could foster stronger military cooperation, with the potential for arms sales and technology transfers. With an adaptive approach, India can leverage these shifts in trade and defence to advance its economic and security interests.

(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with the Centre for New Economics Studies, OP Jindal Global University and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative. Aryan Gopalakrishnan is a Research Analyst with CNES and graduated from Jindal School of Government and Public Policy. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)