The Interplay of Food Security, Economic Perception and Govt Policy in India

Image used for representation only.

(Photo: PTI)

In India, the paradox of food insecurity persists despite agricultural abundance. With over 1.4 billion people, nearly 14 per cent suffer from undernourishment, highlighting deep-rooted challenges in access and distribution. Empowering small farmers through education, technology access, and irrigation is extremely essential for improving the food security scenario in India along with expanding targeted food security programs like the Public Distribution System (PDS).

Government’s Efforts to Increase Food Security

Recognising a citizen's inherent right to access adequate food, the Indian government instituted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in 2013. This pivotal legislation signalled a critical shift towards a rights-based approach to food security. The NFSA extends subsidised food grains to approximately two-thirds of India's populace, categorising beneficiaries into Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) and Priority Households (PHH).

AAY households, representing the most impoverished, receive 35 kilograms monthly at heavily subsidised rates, while PHH families access five kilograms per person. The NFSA's subsidised pricing of rice, wheat, and coarse grains renders these essentials affordable, particularly for low-income households. This initiative not only guarantees food security but also addresses the needs of vulnerable sections, representing a significant leap towards inclusive development.

State-wise allocation of grains under the National Food Security Act.

Source: Team Infosphere.

It has been observed that even though Odisha has a better record of implementing the Act, the Centre’s disbursal of food grains to it is alarmingly less in comparison to what goes out to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which perform poorly on executing the legislation. This dichotomy highlights a complex interplay of factors shaping resource allocation.

Odisha's smaller population size relative to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar likely contributes to its lower grain allocation, despite its commendable implementation efforts. Moreover, variations in socioeconomic indicators such as poverty rates and malnutrition levels across states influence allocation decisions, potentially favouring regions with greater needs.

Political dynamics and historical considerations also play a role, as certain states may receive preferential treatment in resource distribution. Addressing this incongruity necessitates a nuanced approach that considers equitable distribution based on both implementation, and demographic and socioeconomic realities across states.

Quantity disbursed under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana.

Source: Team Infosphere.

The second scheme that was introduced during COVID was the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna (PM-GKAY), which is part of the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, providing free food grains to migrants and the poor. Its phases ran from April to June 2020 (Phase I), July to November 2020 (Phase II), May to June 2021 (Phase III), July to November 2021 (Phase IV), and December 2021 to March 2022 (Phase V).

Under this scheme, the Centre supplied five kilograms of free food grains monthly to the poor, in addition to subsidised ration provided under the NFSA. Phase VI, from April to September 2022, entailed an estimated additional food subsidy of Rs 80,000 Crore.

Increasing the quantity of grain disbursed through initiatives like the PM-GKAY significantly bolsters nutrition and fortifies food security for citizens. Firstly, augmenting grain provisions directly translates to expanded access to essential dietary staples, vital in meeting basic nutritional requirements. This enhanced access alleviates the risk of hunger and malnutrition, particularly among the economically disadvantaged segments of society.

Furthermore, a surplus of grain empowers households to diversify their diets, allocating resources toward acquiring supplementary food items such as fruits, vegetables, and proteins. Such dietary diversity is pivotal for ensuring balanced nutrition, consequently bolstering overall health outcomes, particularly in vulnerable demographics like children and pregnant women.

Moreover, increased grain accessibility shields households from the adverse impacts of food shortages and market price fluctuations. A reliable supply of subsidised or free grains enables individuals and families to navigate economic crises and emergencies with greater resilience, reducing the prevalence of food insecurity.

People’s Perception of Price Level in India

According to an RBI (Reserve Bank of India) Consumer Confidence Survey, across income brackets, concerns about price rise permeate Indian households.

Among those earning less than Rs 5000 a month, 79 per cent anticipate higher general prices, exacerbating financial strain and jeopardising basic needs. Even those in the Rs 5000-10000 category, 80 per cent expressed apprehension over price rise, impacting their living standards. Surprisingly, even among those earning between Rs 50000 to less than Rs 100000, 80 per cent foresaw inflationary pressures, indicating the pervasive influence of price fluctuations on consumption patterns and financial planning.

Income group-wise perception of general price increase - one year ahead

Source: Team Infosphere.

Profession-wise perception of general price increase - one year ahead.

Source: Team Infosphere.

Among different demographics, attitudes toward future price rise vary significantly. Daily workers, accustomed to fluctuating wages, show minimal concern, with only 8 per cent anticipating inflation. Their familiarity with income volatility potentially shapes this perspective.

Conversely, salaried employees, benefiting from stable monthly incomes, express heightened apprehension, with 24.1 per cent expecting price rise.

Notably, housewives, responsible for managing household expenses, exhibit the highest worry, with 36.3 per cent foreseeing price increases. Their acute sensitivity to changes in the cost of living directly influences budgeting and family welfare decisions.

Outlook on general prices - one year ahead.

Source: Team Infosphere.

A prevailing concern looms among young working adults in India, with a substantial 79 per cent in both the 21-29 and 30-39 age brackets anticipating a rise in inflation over the upcoming year. This collective apprehension underscores a significant worry about escalating prices within the working-class demographic.

The potential consequences of rising inflation weigh heavily on this segment, known for its limited disposable income and stringent budgets. Such individuals may face the grim prospect of curtailing essential expenses or compromising their standard of living should inflation persist in its upward trajectory.

Outlook on inflation - one year ahead.

Source: Team Infosphere.

The pronounced percentage of respondents foreseeing inflation suggests that their views may be rooted in past encounters with price surges. These factors likely shape their perceptions and fuel their concerns regarding the impending economic landscape.

People's Perceptions and Food Security

The prevalence of food insecurity amplifies the impact of people's perception of rising prices. Even among those earning relatively higher incomes, such as individuals aged 30-39, a substantial proportion anticipates inflationary pressures, reflecting widespread apprehension.

The link between food security and price perception is particularly pronounced among vulnerable demographics. For daily wage worker, accustomed to income volatility, as mentioned before, concerns about rising prices may be tempered by their familiarity with financial instability.

The perception of rising prices compounds the challenges of ensuring food security for all citizens. As prices increase, the affordability of nutritious food becomes a growing concern, particularly for low-income households. Inefficient storage and distribution systems exacerbate this issue, contributing to substantial wastage and further limiting access to food.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

To ensure better food security in our country, policymakers must strongly analyse and plug certain gaps identified in the existing policies. Starting with the implementation gaps of existing schemes, one of the foremost concerns is the “leakages and diversion of funds” allocated to centrally sponsored schemes. The loss translates to thousands of crores to the exchequer and poses a serious challenge in ensuring the success of any scheme

In addition to this, the deficient redressal of complaints and poor target achievement has been a consistent issue. Officials within the PDS find it difficult to identify a set of individuals as the desired “target group” due to overlapping and incorrect information, resulting in inconsistencies in the functioning of the scheme

An image detailing the instances of pilferage of grains in select Indian states.

Source: Team Infosphere.

Moving forward, public distribution systems in India need to be revamped immediately, and some major steps have been taken in this direction like the proposal to have One Nation One Ration Card(ONORC).

But some fundamental changes have to be made on this front, including strengthening existing infrastructure to reduce leakages and diversion of funds or essential items. This includes digitising every system and undertaking stringent security checks on all levels.

Production of essential crops that serve as an indicator of food security.

Source: Team Infosphere.

To increase public confidence in the PDS, the government must be proactive and focus on controlling the prices of essential items. Additionally, private players must be engaged with to increase efficiency.

(Deepanshu Mohan is Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Interdisciplinary Studies, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), O.P. Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses, nor is responsible for them.)