Surgical Strikes: Modi Maintains his Predictable Unpredictability

This is not the first high-risk game for Modi. Nor will it be his last.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing the inaugural ceremony of the INDOSAN (India Sanitation Conference) in New Delhi on Friday. (Photo: PTI)

The remote control is back in his hand, thanks to that rare phase in history when individual choices and national interests coalesce. His interests are the national interests and vice versa.

The Uri attack and the surgical strikes in Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir (PoK) that followed have given Prime Minister Narendra Modi that moment. And hasn’t he seized the initiative? Wasn’t he looking for this moment?

The script had gone awry in the last few months. Crushing defeat in the Bihar assembly elections, Dalit movements across the country, the rise of Patidars in Gujarat and Marathas in Maharashtra and renewed unrest in the Kashmir Valley — these events perhaps had given sleepless nights to Modi. He did not look like he was on top of the situation on most of these issues.

Why Modi Took So Long to Reply to Uri Attack?

The long pause following the Uri attack was seen as a sign of weakness. Modi’s followers were getting restless. The country was looking for a quick and decisive response. But the announcement of surgical strikes on 29 September silenced all his critics. Now there is a chorus of support for his actions, even from those who would have begrudged it. Accolades from the countrymen are just a bonus.

Going forward, the script will read like this: The country is at a critical juncture and parties in opposition must desist from raising issues that may create difference. The country is Modi and Modi is the country. Doesn’t this suit PM Modi?

The foremost question in everyone’s mind following the Uri attack that claimed 20 lives was what will the PM do now? The country wanted an answer from the globetrotting leader who had sold the dream of a strong nation.

The PM surprised us all by waiting for 12 days. The standard reaction to his Kozhikode speech was: Aap to aise na the. The line being pushed there was Pakistan will be isolated diplomatically. But who has the patience to wait for classical chess matches when fatafat cricket is the norm?

Also Read: Pakistan Will Retaliate at a Time and Place of Their Choosing

BJP workers offering laddoos to a poster of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to celebrate the surgical strike in PoK by Indian Army to avenge Uri Attack, in Bhopal. (Photo: PTI)

Paradigm Shift in Modi’s Approach?

Commentators sensed a paradigm shift in Modi’s approach. This wait-and-watch game coming from him was incomprehensible to them.

The line taken by them to justify the PM’s seemingly patient approach was that Pakistan is a nuclear state. However, Modi has a penchant for deviating from scripts written by others. He did precisely that this time too.

What is incomprehensible is Pakistan’s muted and somewhat timid response. Perhaps they are coming to terms with the surprise element in India’s strikes.

It took just one day to dispel the notion that India will not be an aggressor and will desist from surgical strikes. The US administration seems to be on board. The Chinese reaction has not been negative. So far so good. Just what the doctor had prescribed.

But when you take big, bold decisions, it is unlikely that all the moving parts will move in tandem. This is the big gamble that Modi has taken. But then he is known for playing a high-stakes game. He believes in scaling up.

‘Critical Voices May Run Out of Ideas’

29 September was when the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan was to be reviewed. That was replaced by Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting. Briefing of envoys, chief ministers and leaders of opposition followed. Everything went according to plan and was perfectly executed.

The issue is going to remain alive for days to come. The BJP will now be hoping to reap benefits in the forthcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. All those lending voice to the Dalit and Maratha agitations run the risk of getting marginalised. The critical voices may run out of ideas.

People seeking greater glory, with a view to register their names in history, weigh their options and select their path carefully. High-risk games often follow. But Modi, perhaps, is a great gambler. This is not the first time he has taken risky strategies. Nor will it be the last.

Don’t forget that this game, risky as it is, is going to be projected as something in the interests of ‘sawa sau crore’ Indians.

(Sanjay Pugalia is the Editorial Director of Quintillion Media and can be reached at @sanjaypugalia)

Also Read: After Surgical Strikes on LoC, a New Role for India’s Aviators?