There’s Something Strange Brewing in the UP Elections This Year

(Photo: The Quint)

Something unusual is brewing in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. The pre-Assembly elections period usually sees the powers in Delhi training their guns on the rival parties in the state that is headed to polls.

Accusations are levelled and the I-T department and the CBI are then mobilised into conducting impromptu raids. This was the case even when the Congress was in power at the Centre. Raids upon workers, builders, and businessmen related to the opposition parties right before Vidhan Sabha elections were a regular affair.

• While BJP continues its attack on opposition parties, the SP appears to have been let off easy
  
• There is a palpable lack of venom in the BJP’s speeches against the SP
  
• Another unusual thing happening in poll-bound UP is the infighting between SP members right before the elections
  
• The SP feud appears to be progressing in a synchronised manner

Here’s the current scenario:

In West Bengal, the CBI has arrested Mamata Banerjee’s MPs; In a post-Jayalalithaa Tamil Nadu, the chief secretary has been ousted on charges of corruption; Reports of action against the AAP government in Delhi are a daily occurrence. Rajendra Kumar, Principal Secretary to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, has been jailed on corruption charges.

In Uttar Pradesh, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati is also under scrutiny after reports of Rs 104 crore being added to her party’s bank account after the note ban made the rounds.

Amidst all this, however, the Samajwadi Party (SP) seems to have been let off easy. No new allegations have been levelled against the party. No old incidents of misconduct by the party’s leaders have been dredged up. 

Agencies appear to be turning a blind eye to the fact that the SP has collected a considerable amount of money in its coffers in poll-bound UP, choosing instead to focus on the Mayawati-led BSP’s finances instead.

The lack of venom in the BJP’s speeches against the SP is palpable. In fact, some BJP leaders have privately expressed admiration for Akhilesh Yadav’s political mettle. They believe that in openly seeking a battle with his father and uncle, Akhilesh has rid himself of the need to worry about anti-incumbency. Some BJP leaders opine that this might prove to be the masterstroke that will put the election in his bag.

Which brings us to the other unusual thing happening in poll-bound UP: the war of soap-opera proportions between the Chief Minister and his father over their political party.

A bout of infighting between the SP members usually plays out with things getting out of control and each side hurling abuses.

However, this time around, the SP feud has progressed in an orderly manner – quarrel followed by reconciliation, suspension followed by reinstatement. What is going on?

Some opine that this cleverly engineered family feud has ended anti-incumbency for the UP Chief Minister. He can go on to become a national leader now. However, turning the tide right before an election is no easy task. And if it does happen, fresh research will have to be conducted in order to understand the idiosyncrasies of the ordinary voter in UP and Bihar.

Political pundits have laid out two contrasting scenarios. In the first, the battle is primarily between the BJP and the SP. If the SP breaks up, the BJP can ride to victory even on fewer votes. In the second scenario, experts argue that the BJP is rooting for the SP to remain united so as to keep Muslim voters from opting for Mayawati’s BSP.

If the SP splits up, the Muslim vote might go to the BSP, taking Mayawati closer to victory. Those behind this calculation consider the BJP to be a serious contender in the 2017 elections, and maintain that if the Muslim vote remains unanimously with the SP, they will still lose due to anti-incumbency, paving the way for a BJP victory.

Those backing this argument place Mayawati and the BSP third in the UP election race. But if the BJP’s rhetoric against Mayawati and their attacks on her are anything to go by, they clearly consider her a serious challenge. They may even be preparing for a BJP-BSP showdown. An opinion poll that showed votes split equally between BSP and SP gives weight to this theory.

In this context, the family feud within the SP appears to be scripted from start to finish. How else can a party claim that their voter base is unperturbed by a bout of infighting that threatens to split the party wide open? This sounds like the work of a few clever scriptwriters.

Has Akhilesh truly cemented his place in UP by impressing the voters with his efforts to develop the state? How is it that Amar Singh has been granted ‘Z’ category security by the same NDA government that, only a year ago, had downgraded his security?

Also Read: Amar Singh’s ‘Z’ Security Fuels Rumours of BJP’s Role in SP Feud

Akhilesh Yadav openly calls Amar Singh the root of the SP family feud. On the other hand, Mulayam Singh Yadav gives Amar Singh credit for keeping him out of jail.

All of this indicates that a big piece of the UP poll puzzle is still missing. A clearer picture will come to light in the coming days.