Fodder Scam Continues to Hit Fortunes of RJD as Lalu Prasad Yadav Back in Jail

How will the latest sentence affect the politics of RJD and Bihar?

File photo of Lalu Prasad Yadav.

(Photo: PTI)

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav has been convicted for the fifth time in the fodder scam. He has been sentenced to five years of rigorous imprisonment in the Doranda Treasury case. The special court of CBI has also imposed a fine of Rs 60 lakh on Yadav.

Prabhat Kumar, the counsel for Lalu Yadav, tried to plead to the court to show leniency considering his age, and ill-health but the court took a stern view and sentenced him for five years. Lalu is currently admitted to a hospital for treatment.

Legal experts say that Lalu Yadav would have to cool his heels in jail for a few days while he approaches the higher courts with his bail plea.

How Will The Absence of Lalu Yadav Affect RJD Politics?

How will Yadav's absence affect the RJD politics is a question that is being hotly debated in political circles at a time when his sons, Tej Pratap and Tejashwi, are at loggerheads in the game of one-upmanship. Some say that the absence of Lalu Yadav may not affect RJD at all or even benefit it in the long term as the party supporters are seeking decisive guidance on the future path of the party.

“I do not think that the latest sentence over Lalu Yadav is going to affect the RJD in any way. Lalu Yadav has become an institution now and it does not affect his party whether he is in jail or out of jail,” Professor DM Diwakar, a political analyst said.

“Lalu Yadav is a mass leader and his trust among his followers has not ebbed in any way over the years,” Professor DM Diwakar, Political Analyst.

Santosh Singh of The Indian Express also concurs with the view. The politics of Lalu Yadav has remained unaffected by the court decisions in the past but have only dented it slightly, he says.

“Lalu Yadav was charged in 1997 in the fodder scam but his party returned to power in 2000. Even RJD’s performance in the 2004 general elections was commendable. When everyone was thinking that Lalu Yadav is going to get finished, his party won 22 seats. He went on to become union railways minister and also turned a management guru giving out lessons in top management institutes about development.”

Santosh Singh, Assistant Editor, The Indian Express.

Singh insists that the Doranda Treasury Case sentence is a “Repeated verdict” that does not affect the political health of his party. “Even though RJD was bold out at duck in 2019 general election, they were the largest party on the floor of the assembly in 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. The court verdict in the fodder scam may not affect Lalu Yadav in any significant way politically,” he says.

Another popular view among his supporters is, “How many times a man could be hanged for the same crime? Public wants to know, whether it is the only scam taken place in India? If yes, then what action has been taken so far? What has happened in the cases related to Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi, Vijay Mallya, and Mehul Choksi?”

(Image courtesy: The Quint/ Chetan Bhakuni)

Verdict of People’s Court Differs From Court of Law

The verdict of the people’s court has always differed from the decisions of the court of law for Lalu Yadav. When he was first charged in 1997, he was the second term Chief Minister of Bihar. He had to resign after his conviction but passed the baton to his wife Rabri Devi.

Everyone was watching assembly elections in 2000 when the RJD supremo was tainted and the party was on the brink of breaking up. But Yadav singlehandedly won 124 seats and returned to power for the third time with the help of Congress.

In the 2005 assembly elections, RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats but failed to form the government resulting in the imposition of the president’s rule in Bihar. After six months, when fresh elections were declared, RJD won 54 seats but NDA captured the power. In 2010, RJD could only muster 22 seats but came back strong in 2015 with 80 seats and become the single largest party in the Bihar assembly, and formed the government with Nitish Kumar.

In 2020, RJD won 75 seats and the grand alliance won 110 seats but could not form the government but RJD continued to hold its sway in Bihar politics. RJD is proving formidable even in the Modi era, and JD-U, Nitish Kumar’s party, is now a distant third.

(Image courtesy: The Quint/ Chetan Bhakuni)

Lalu Yadav Unperturbed

The latest sentence to Lalu Yadav in fodder scam is a setback for his family and the party, but he looked unperturbed. The reason is that he has already handed over the baton of his political legacy to his younger son Tejashwi Yadav, and more importantly people and party cadre has accepted him. The performance of RJD in the last assembly election is evidence of the fact as Tejashwi Yadav led the party from the front while Lalu Yadav longed in jail.

Tejashwi Yadav was holding 12-15 rallies on a daily basis and the youth was crazy to hear him out. The Grand alliance led by RJD had almost touched the magical mark but NDA won the race. Tejashwi Yadav was short 12 seats from forming the government.

“Tejashwi has already taken off and people have accepted him as their leader. The result of the 2020 assembly election is proof of that and a reason of solace for Lalu Yadav."

Professor DM Diwakar, Political Analyst.

The Family Feud

The politics of Lalu Yadav is safe but the family feud is definitely pricking him. When Tejashwi Yadav was made deputy Chief Minister in the Nitish Kumar government, Tej Pratap was given the health portfolio. His elder sister, Misa Bharti, got the Rajya Sabha nomination. But as far as the party is concerned, today Tejashwi Yadav is a clear leader.

The rumours were rife that Lalu Yadav will formally announce Tejashwi as the leader of RJD in the party’s national convention, but the decision was deferred while the meeting took place on February 10 in a hotel in Patna. RJD is now expected to announce the new chief by the end of this year.

(Translated from Hindi by Arvind Singh.)