Reassessing the Indus Waters Treaty Amidst Real Climate Challenges

More than six decades since its signing, this treaty is at the crux of renewed tensions and calls for renegotiation.

The confluence of the Indus and Zanskar rivers in Ladakh.

(Photo: iStock)

Are we prepared for the climate crisis staring us in the face? The Quint wants to go big on telling the most important stories of our time. Support us to tell them. Become a member now.

Water remains a vital yet contentious resource in a world where geopolitical tensions intertwine with emerging environmental challenges.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed on 19 September 1960, between India and Pakistan under the aegis of the World Bank, deftly encapsulates this complexity. This agreement elegantly fixes the rights and responsibilities of these neighbouring countries concerning utilising the Indus River system's waters. More than six decades later, this treaty is at the crux of renewed tensions and calls for renegotiation.

At the heart of this century-long dispute lies the Indus River. Originating in the Tibetan plateau, it meanders through the contentious Kashmir region before continuing into Pakistan, finally merging with the Arabian Sea. History reveals that the river's tributaries have served irrigation needs for millennia, and under British rule, vast canal networks were constructed to augment its potential. However, the partition of British India in 1947 led to the water channels being divided. The headworks remained in India, while most canals traversed into Pakistan.

The immediate aftermath of Partition saw India curtail water flowing into Pakistan in 1948. Both countries signed the Inter-Dominion Accord to prevent an impending crisis, granting Pakistan water from India in exchange for annual payments. Still, this was a temporary fix, and negotiations continued to seek a permanent solution facilitated by experts from the World Bank. 

The historical context gave rise to the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960, where the distribution of the river waters was finalised: the eastern rivers—Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—were allocated to India, while Pakistan gained rights over the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This agreement included provisions for infrastructure funding to ensure Pakistan received its water rights uninterrupted, most notably through the construction of the Tarbela and Mangla Dams. 

Navigating Climate Challenges

The treaty was an adept diplomatic effort addressing water division amidst post-partition anxieties between India and Pakistan. However, over six decades later, this stalwart agreement confronts unprecedented climate challenges that necessitate a comprehensive review and adaptation to contemporary realities.

Rapidly changing climatic conditions have cast a profound impact on the Indus River system, which underpins Pakistan's agricultural backbone and India's hydropower infrastructure. Erratic rainfall patterns accelerated glacial melt, and intensifying monsoon variability contribute to increased flood risks and prolonged droughts, exacerbating water scarcity in the densely populated basin.

Further compounding these issues is the massive population growth in both nations since the treaty's inception, creating heightened demand for water resources amidst dwindling supplies. The original provisions of the treaty, crafted in an era unaware of such severe environmental shifts, require urgent reassessment to ensure sustainable water sharing and management.

Amidst these challenges, India and Pakistan must embrace a future-focused dialogue that integrates scientific advancements and climate data into the treaty's framework. Both countries can mitigate climate-induced risks by updating and reinforcing this critical agreement, ensuring water security for the millions reliant on the Indus River system and fostering regional stability. 

Current Tensions and Push for Renegotiation

Despite the treaty's robust framework, disputes persisted, particularly with India's infrastructural developments like the Kishanganga Dam and Ratle power station, which Pakistan claims contravene the treaty's terms. Though the Permanent Indus Commission has successfully mediated numerous disputes, the treaty's effective enforcement is now endangered. India's recent push to renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty highlights various justified concerns.

The demographic shifts and environmental challenges that have emerged since 1960 are profound. Population growth in India—now the most populous nation in the world—has exerted immense pressure on water resources, intensifying calls for revisiting the treaty's allocations. Moreover, the escalating impact of climate change, manifesting in erratic monsoons and glacial melt, further complicates water security for both nations. 

Pakistan, however, perceives these calls for renegotiation as a manoeuvre by India to gain broader control over the western rivers, jeopardising its water-dependent agriculture sector. The treaty, which Pakistan views as a "gold standard" for bilateral agreements, remains foundational to its water reliance strategy, with the Indus system addressing a significant portion of its agricultural and potable water needs.

Water has surfaced as a potential strategic weapon as the geopolitical landscape evolves. India leverages its upper riparian status, hinting at deploying water to influence Pakistan's actions. This approach, however, impacts beyond bilateral ties, echoing through regional stability.

The Path Forward

The way forward necessitates a nuanced engagement and a rekindling of the treaty's original cooperative spirit. India and Pakistan must initiate open dialogues underpinned by mutual respect and foresight that prioritises regional stability and sustainable water management.

The involvement of international intermediaries, akin to past World Bank interventions, could facilitate a renewed framework accommodating contemporary realities, such as climate impacts and technological advancements in water management.

While the intricacies of the Indus Waters Treaty are entangled with the broader political relations between India and Pakistan, setting aside political egos in favour of pragmatic, technical discussions could facilitate progress. It is crucial to underscore that water security is inherently tied to human security.

Both nations should push for an agreement to manage river flows and secure a harmonious future for nearly 1.6 billion people reliant on these shared waters. In this context, the treaty’s renegotiation could transcend into an opportunity to forge a sustainable, equitable water-sharing framework that resists the emerging threats of our time. 

Revising IWT in the Face of Climate Change

A future-ready Indus Waters Treaty should prioritise integrating climate science and adaptive management to address the challenges of climate change. This involves incorporating robust climate science to predict and mitigate risks such as glacial melt and fluctuating monsoon patterns.

Establishing a dynamic management framework that regularly reviews and adjusts water allocations based on real-time data and scientific forecasts will enable both countries to respond effectively to environmental changes, securing water resources for agriculture, hydropower, and public supply.

Strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation is equally critical. India and Pakistan should focus on revitalising the Permanent Indus Commission and encourage regular bilateral meetings to navigate geopolitical complexities.

Involving neutral international entities like the World Bank can facilitate negotiations and provide unbiased mediation. A cooperative approach will allow both nations to explore joint water management initiatives and infrastructure projects, maximising mutual benefits and minimising conflict potential.

Finally, building resilience through technological innovation is vital. Both countries can significantly reduce the strain on the Indus River system by investing in and sharing cutting-edge technologies in water conservation, irrigation efficiency, and renewable energy. Embracing innovations such as advanced hydrological models and water-efficient irrigation systems will pave the way toward a sustainable and climate-resilient future, enhancing water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. 

Anjal Prakash is a Clinical Associate Professor (Research) at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business (ISB). He teaches sustainability at ISB and contributes to IPCC reports.