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Tamil Nadu is prone to cyclones these days and that could well be a metaphor for politics in the southern state that has seen several storms of various shapes and sizes since the mammoth flooding that saw the capital city of Chennai floating in 2015, months before the demise of feisty Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. Her passing in 2016 created a political vacuum that has dramatically altered political equations in the state.
The long-awaited political launch of movie superstar Rajinikanth this week after much dilly-dallying – on when, how and indeed whether he will make a promised entry into politics – is only the latest of the storms to blow over the state.
Much water has flown down the Cauvery since Jayalalithaa's demise – and each political episode matching the flow has only raised more questions than answers.
First up, the former movie heroine's bête noire, arch-rival DMK leader M Karunanidhi, passed away in 2018. That further deepened the political vacuum. His son MK Stalin is seen by his supporters as a natural replacement on the rebound for the incumbent AIADMK. Stalin has been working hard with grassroots campaigns on everything from farmers plight and human rights, to Tamil pride and college admissions – but is not a match for his late father, in charisma or oratorial skills.
The Dalit-centric VCK, the Vanniyar caste-based PMK, the breakaway MDMK led by Vaiko, stunt hero Vijayakanth's DMDK, and the linguistically racial ‘Naam Thamizhar’ (We Tamils) party led by small-time actor Seeman, stand alongside communist groups. The Dravida tag is common to many – and that usually means a cocktail of some caste and Tamil pride.
To top it all, actor Kamal Haasan launched the Makkal Needhi Maiam (People's Justice Centre) to plunge into politics that promises better, clean governance.
Rajinikanth's go-it-alone party, whose name is yet to be announced, enters this messy, chaotic universe with his charisma, dashing screen persona, and a large fan base. But his bluster in thundering "Maathuvom, Ellathayume Maathuvom" (We will change. We will change everything) – as he launched his party with a now-or-never announcement – has too many holes that need to be fixed.
Like the late former Chief Minister MG Ramachandran (MGR), Rajini's on-screen roles as an upright saviour and his off-screen charities do evoke a social appeal. However, unlike Karunanidhi and MGR, his political appeal is not based on long-term grassroots engagement in the Dravida ideology and party politics.
It is an untested territory but sounds promising.
Tamil Nadu's literacy level has crossed 80 percent, and younger voters would be in the 100 percent zone. Everyone, from Hyundai to the World Bank, has been spinning jobs in the state that is now a key IT centre and often relies on migrant workers from Nepal and Odisha to do menial jobs. Engineering colleges have mushroomed in a symbol of economic prosperity in a state already known to be industrialised.
Rajini was assiduously wooed by the BJP as it tried to fill the vacuum left by Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, but under Union Home Minister Amit Shah's stewardship, the Hindutva party has continued its ties with the AIADMK led by the uncomfortable Siamese twins – EPS and OPS. Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam do not quite get along, but are in a marriage of convenience increasingly glued by the BJP.
DMK's cadre-based, committed vote base is strong. Chances seem higher for him to capture floating votes that might harm both DMK and the BJP. If that really gains traction, we are looking at a hung assembly or at least, desperate pre-election bargaining in 2021 when Tamil Nadu goes to the polls.
Rajini asserts his party will contest all 234 seats. Given that there is a range of popular young movie heroes from Vishaal and Vijay to Ajithkumar and Vijay Sethupathi, Rajini's on-screen appeal may have a limited conversion rate based on-screen antics.
Besides, he is trying a spiritual variant of politics based on love, as he himself says. Veteran Gandhian Tamilaruvi Manian is Rajinikanth's party supervisor. Rajini's own questionable health after a kidney transplant, and his age (he turns 70 later this month) are other factors that make his off-screen political entry a shadow of his on-screen stunts and style that have spawned memes, jokes, and an appreciative fan base that stretches to Japan.
However, if he does go back from his 234-seat promise to find allies (say, Kamal Haasan), things could well turn difficult for the DMK and the AIADMK.
What is clear is that Tamil Nadu’s political field is now crowded by wannabes, and a lot will depend on how alliances shape. The imminent release from jail of corruption-scarred VK Sasikala of the Amma DMK (Jayalalithaa's long-time confidante) will only add to the chaotic colours of state politics.
Expect unpredictable romances and predictable fight scenes. Bring on the popcorn.
(The writer is a senior journalist who has covered economics and politics for Reuters, The Economic Times, Business Standard and Hindustan Times. He tweets as @madversity. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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Published: 04 Dec 2020,08:58 AM IST