Deft Diplomacy and a Gas Deal? How Modi Anchored India-Qatar Ties to a Success

While there's no direct connection between the release of navy men and this deal, speculations can't be wished away.

While there is no direct connection between the release of detainees and this deal, speculation about incentives and unmentioned disincentives cannot be wished away.

(Photo: Namita Chauhan/ The Quint)

The release of eight highly decorated ex-Indian Navy officers from a prison in Qatar is, doubtlessly, a piece of welcome news for the whole country.

All eight officers have been released and seven have returned home safely. One officer remains in Doha as he is unwell.

They were first sentenced to death and upon appeal to a higher court, the sentence was commuted to imprisonment for different terms.

Their acquittal and release required sustained effort by the Indian government over 18 months of their incarceration.

Purported Link of Indian Ex-Navy Officers to Israel

The case was shrouded in secrecy and became murky when media leaks suggested "espionage” and "treason” for charges of passing on defence secrets to Israel.

The officers worked for a Qatari company, now defunct, which provided training services for the defence of the Qatari Armed Forces officers.

Unverified media leaks suggested that these officers may have provided some information to Israel on Qatar’s acquisition of submarines. However, it is quite unlikely that these experienced officers would knowingly involve themselves in espionage on Israel’s behalf.

The officers have confirmed that their work was limited to training and they had no access to any defence deals.

Pakistan Has Been a Foil to India-Qatar Ties

Qatar’s legal system is opaque and legal proceedings are held secretly unlike in democracies where legal cases are debated and decided in courts open to the public. Qatar is a family-ruled sheikhdom which has sought to punch above its weight, using its vast financial resources that accrue from selling gas.

Global demand for gas has gone up substantially because of climate change concerns, spurring adaptation to cleaner fuels and renewables.

Pakistan is extremely worried about India’s outreach by PM Narendra Modi’s government to the Gulf countries which it has always considered its exclusive preserve.

Hence, there is a strong belief that it was misinformation planted by Pakistan which is worried about Indian defence personnel gradually replacing their personnel in providing services in the defence sector.

With India’s burgeoning economic ties with the Gulf countries, Pakistan can no longer leverage religion as a bonding factor, as opposed to economic interests. Remittances are an important source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, particularly in its parlous economic situation.

Around 8 lakh Indians work in Qatar and Pakistani workers are around 1.5 lakhs. By poisoning ties with India, Pakistan hoped to influence Qatar to recruit more workers from its country and bolster its remittance income.

How Modi’s Personal Influence Created Diplomatic Impact

India’s quiet efforts and crucial personal diplomacy by PM Modi have restored the level playing field between the two countries. Modi’s defining role in this exercise was instrumental in the final denouement.

Background diplomatic efforts by EAM, NSA, and India’s Ambassador and diplomats laid the basis for this favourable outcome. PM Modi has led from the front and his ability to establish personal ties with leaders of various countries is well-known.

His meeting with the Emir of Qatar on the sidelines of the COP28 meeting in Doha gave the final push to the Qatari decision to release the Indian ex-servicemen.

PM Modi has decided to visit Doha after his current visit to the UAE where he is set to inaugurate the first Hindu temple with President Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan. When Modi undertook his first visit to the UAE in 2015, it marked the visit of an Indian PM after almost three decades.

This itself underlines the neglect of India’s previous leadership towards this important relationship. Thus, Opposition barbs directed at PM Modi for failing to release the ex-service personnel have now been reduced to grudging approval for his success.

Qatar’s Complex Foreign Policy With the Middle East

Qatar has been somewhat of a maverick in its foreign policy. It fell out with its Arab neighbours and was the target of a collective embargo by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt all of whom snapped diplomatic ties in March 2014 – the most drastic step since the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was formed in 1981.

This situation lasted till 2021 when tensions eased and ties were normalised.

The Saudis were angered by Qatar’s close ties with Iran, support to Islamist groups like the Islamic Brotherhood, and the slanted media coverage by the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera news channel which is known to put out news and reports aligned with Qatar’s ideological predilection.

Qatar admitted to providing funding support to the Islamic Brotherhood and other Islamist groups but denied extending support to terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

The developments during the 2011 "Arab Spring” uprising in various Arab states had sent alarm bells ringing and the ruling regimes were on edge, fearful of being overthrown by the masses.

These undemocratic regimes banded together to protect themselves but Qatar developed ties with Opposition groups in affected Arab countries and Al-Jazeera gave positive coverage to the Opposition groups.

In 2013, the Mubarak government was overthrown in Egypt, following mass protests. Later, the military overthrew the elected Islamic Brotherhood government which succeeded the Mubarak dictatorship.

Qatar condemned the coup and ties with Egypt nosedived. The Al Jazeera office in Cairo was shut down. Donald Trump gave vocal support to the Saudi-led boycott of Qatar. Turkey emerged as its strongest supporter and provided food shipments and thousands of troops to help overcome the embargo. Iran also sent food shipments to Qatar.

Ultimately, pressure from the US and appeals by other Arab countries led to the rapprochement and normalisation of ties.

Qatar’s Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War and Ties With US

Qatar developed close ties with the US and as a non-NATO ally, hosts the AL-Udeid American air base, the largest in the region.

Over 10,000 American troops are stationed there. During the current Israel-Hamas conflict – Qatar and the US agreed to extend the agreement for the air base till 2034.

Qatar asserts that this is to help the war on terrorism. Qatar also helped in mediating between the US and Taliban which led to the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the return of Taliban rule. It has hosted Hamas leaders in Doha and helped in providing a communications conduit between Israel and the Palestinian militant group.

Qatari mediation has helped in the release of around 110 Israeli hostages by the Hamas.

Qatar’s role has made the US conveniently set aside any public admonition of the Qatari regime on democracy and human rights because of its own interests and that of Israel. But cynically, the US uses democracy and human rights tools to berate others, where its strategic interests have lower priority.

Qatar, flush with funds from gas sales is also a profitable destination for the American arms industry.

Did the Gas Deal Contribute to the Release of Navy Men?

It may be tempting to speculate about the negotiations that led to the release of the Indian ex-service personnel. However, it is facile to assume that it is linked to the USD 78 billion deal of supply of gas by Qatar to India over the next decade which preceded the release of the ex-servicemen.

While there is no direct connection between the release of detainees and this deal, speculation about incentives and unmentioned disincentives cannot be wished away.

Did Qatar manufacture charges of espionage and take legal action to develop leverage against India to ensure that the gas deal fructifies? This question is in the realm of speculation.

As the saying goes "All’s well that ends well” and India-Qatar ties have achieved its friendly and mutually beneficial status.

The Qatari leadership’s vision and perspicacity and PM Modi’s determination and leadership have played seminal roles in restoring balance to bilateral ties.

(The author is a former Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs; he has served as Deputy High Commissioner and later as High Commissioner to Bangladesh; he is a founding Director of DeepStrat, a think tank and a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)