Punjab Elections: Why Five Districts Will Decide the Fate of All Players

Who will win Punjab? The answer to this question lies in five big districts. 

(Photo: The Quint)

A turnout decline of around 5% in Punjab, which went to the polls on 20 February, has complicated matters for political pundits and pollsters who were predicting an AAP victory. Punjab’s electoral politics is very difficult to understand or decipher as it’s a border state – the minority-majority relationship between Sikhs and Hindus, a large Dalit population and very different three regions further complicate the arithmetic.

Generally, a lower turnout is considered good news for the incumbent government, which, in this case, is led by Charanjit Singh Channi. The Gujarat election of 2017, Maharashtra and Haryana in 2019, and Delhi in 2020 are a few examples. But there have been exceptions as well.

Much has been discussed about this subject, so let’s rest the case with this – who benefits from this decline in turnout will be revealed only on 10 March.

The Triangular Contest in Doaba and Majha

Many theories have been propounded to decide who will win Punjab. Various factors, such as a multi-cornered contest, Dera influence and calls to back specific parties, Channi’s D-factor, Kumar Vishwas’s comment on alleged Khalistani links of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a sentiment of badlaav (change) across the state, cross-voting, vote transfers at seat-level, and use of money power, have muddled the situation.

The AAP has its stronghold in Malwa, the rural belt and hotbed of the farmers’ agitation. It has 69 seats. The party won most of its seats in this region in 2017. Supporters claim that it is likely to sweep this region in 2022. But to win Punjab this time, the AAP needs to bag seats in the Doaba and Majha regions, too.

Doaba with 23 seats has a very high Dalit population – 5% higher than the state average. The Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD) alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is working in this region. The AAP’s gain in vote share in this region has made it a triangular contest. Channi is popular here because of obvious reasons.

Majha has 25 seats, and the Golden Temple is situated here at Amritsar. It has traditionally been a SAD stronghold, which was swept by the Congress in 2017. Here as well, the AAP is making inroads, especially among the urban poor and small traders and businessmen. The fight has turned triangular.

Will the triangular contests in Doaba and Majha benefit the incumbent Congress government due to the split in votes? Only time will tell.

While the Congress is banking on the consolidation of Scheduled Castes (SCs), the AAP is banking on the counter-consolidation of Jat Sikhs, as its chief ministerial face, Bhagwant Mann, hails from the community. The AAP is also hoping to sway the minority Hindu community through its lofty promises and the promise of the ‘Delhi model’.

While SCs could side with the Congress due to Channi being the chief ministerial face, the poor and backward classes among Dalits could be won over by the freebies offered by the AAP. The complex interplay of caste and class in Punjab makes it extremely difficult for anybody to guess the results.

Why the Five Districts Matter

Who will win Punjab? The answer to this question lies somewhere else. There are five big districts in the state, each accounting for more than seven seats. These are Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Ludhiana, Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur. They account for 48 seats, which is 41% of the house strength of 117.

Of these five districts, Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur are in Doaba, Amritsar and Gurdaspur are in Majha, while one district, Ludhiana, is in Malwa. Almost a third of these 48 seats are in each of the three regions. The AAP has to win seats from here to form a government in Punjab. In 2017, it had won four seats from this region.

In these districts, the Hindu population is higher than the state average, except for Amritsar. The turnout in all these districts is even lower than what is recorded this year. Only Gurdaspur recorded a similar turnout of 72%. Amritsar has recorded one of the lowest voting percentages.

Three of these districts – Ludhiana, Amritsar and Jalandhar – have over 50% urban population. Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur also have a high SC population.

In 2017, as many as 43% Dalit Hindus and 48% non-Dalit Hindus backed the Congress. The party won 31 of the 45 Hindu-influenced seats in 2017.

These are clearly not AAP’s stronghold areas. The party is expected to do well in small districts and might even sweep these. A low turnout may have impacted the prospects of the AAP, which still doesn’t boast of a cadre similar to that of the SAD and the Congress, and remains largely volunteer-based.

The BJP’s core vote base lies in these districts (except Amritsar). If it does well here, it could dent the AAP’s prospects, as instead of moving away from the Congress to the AAP, some Hindus could move from the Congress to the BJP. The Prime Minister’s security breach has emerged as a big talking point within the community.

A Clear Mandate or a Hung Assembly?

The last few days’ events and coordinated attacks indicate that most mainstream parties could have ganged up against the AAP. Why won’t they?

The SAD, the only truly regional party, faces an existential threat if the AAP wins in the state. The Congress is wary of a wipeout in Punjab, like it witnessed in Delhi, where the AAP has captured its entire vote bank. The BJP could see the AAP as a bigger national threat than Congress in the long run.

Did the Hindus get scared of the AAP by the ‘Khalistani links’ angle again, as in 2017? Would the BJP transfer its votes to the ‘less evil’ Congress, as they did in 2017? Will the people of Punjab give a clear mandate, or will there be a hung Assembly? Interesting times lie ahead.

(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)