SP-BSP Alliance a Sign That 2019 Will be a ‘BJP vs the Rest’ War

The coming together of once bitter rivals is evidence of the fear factor sweeping the non-BJP parties.

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At the end of the first week of the resumed Budget session of Parliament, the BJP looks dangerously poised to head back to those days of “majestic isolation’’ after the demolition of the Babri Masjid when no political party was willing to ally with it.

The Lok Sabha became a battlefield the entire week with the BJP on one side and every other party, including its allies, arrayed against it.

MPs of all political hues shouted slogans, waved placards, didn’t allow ministers to speak and created so much pandemonium that the Speaker was forced to adjourn the House every day without doing a stitch of work.

Pandemonium in the Parliament

TDP MPs were protesting against the Modi government for not giving Andhra Pradesh special status. Shiv Sena MPs were demanding the inclusion of Marathi in the classical languages category.

The Opposition was on the issue of Nirav Modi’s ‘great escape’, pressing for an adjournment motion and debate. Senior MPs cannot remember the last time a ruling party came under this kind of sustained high-pitched attack, not just from the Opposition but from its own partners in government.

“I have never seen such anger and hostility,’’ confessed an MP, shaking his head sadly over the deeply polarised nature of today’s politics.

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By the end of the week, the BJP had lost a major partner from the government. The TDP withdrew its Union ministers but in a face-saver for the BJP, it has refrained from severing ties with the NDA for the moment.

However, its MPs acknowledge that it may have to quit the NDA before the 2019 general election because it cannot contest in alliance with the BJP unless the Modi government makes some concession on the demand for special status for Andhra Pradesh and releases funds.

Reluctance Towards Alliance With BJP

The demand is such a volatile issue in Andhra that even the TDP’s rival, YSR Congress, which has been flirting with the BJP in recent weeks, will hesitate to enter into an alliance with the BJP. This virtually shuts the door for the BJP in an important south Indian state that sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

In neighbouring Telengana, which has 17 MPs in the Lok Sabha, the BJP stands similarly isolated. Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, who was till recently quite soft on the Modi government, has developed a newfound enthusiasm for Mamata Banerjee’s proposal for a non-BJP, non-Congress federal front.

He too is looking elsewhere because the special status issue is as emotive in Telangana as it is in Andhra. Bhakts will argue that the BJP doesn’t need allies in 2019. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have crafted the party into a formidable election winning machine that can make it on its own, without help from anyone.

The recent Assembly elections in the Northeast have certainly reinforced the aura of invincibility that the Modi-Shah duo has crafted around itself. In Tripura, the BJP soared from 0 to 43 and stormed the last bastion of the Left.

In Nagaland and Meghalaya, it has formed governments in alliance with regional parties. As a result, it is in power in seven of the eight states in the Northeast which has been forbidden territory for the BJP for the last seven decades.

Wake-Up Call for the BJP

Yet, reality may be a little different from perception. There is no doubt that the BJP has captured new territory and expanded its footprint across the country since the Modi government swept to power in 2014. But in virtually all these areas, it fought as an Opposition party against a tired ruling party, usually the Congress. This was a huge advantage for a party with fire in its belly and hungry for wins.

In 2019, however, it will be required to defend territory it already rules. And this is quite a different ball game. Gujarat proved how difficult it was for the BJP to battle anti-incumbency of 20 years. It finally won, but just about. And the Congress had the satisfaction of succeeding in creating the impression that it was a victor even in defeat.

Last week’s pandemonium in Parliament should serve as a wake-up call for the BJP. Majestic isolation was never a winning strategy for the party. In 1998 and in 1999, it had to create alliances to form a government at the Centre.

It lost in 2004 primarily because most of its partners walked out of the NDA, leaving the BJP to fight the polls on its own. Significantly, like it will have to do in 2019, the 2004 elections were about defending territory, not trying to capture new ones as an Opposition force.

BJP’s Strength is Also its Achilles’ Heel

As it plans for the 2019 general election, the BJP can hardly afford to be pushed back into majestic isolation again. Its prospects were boosted in the Northeast because it showed the flexibility to make new friends and partners even if meant compromising with its cow politics in Christian-dominated states like Meghalaya and Nagaland.

Can it show the same flexibility in the heartland which it swept in 2014? Most BJP MPs admit that their numbers will come down in states like UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar where it performed phenomenally well in the last Lok Sabha polls.

It can only make up these losses in the south and the east where it will have to scout for allies because of its limited presence. The TDP’s revolt and the movement of the TRS towards a federal front are negative signals to potential new friends in these areas.

The BJP’s ability to win elections is both its strength and weakness. Its recent victories in the Northeast may have gained it new governments but they have scared Opposition parties and allies alike. No party wants to go back to the days of one-party dominance when the Congress lorded it over the entire country.

The coming together of once bitter rivals SP and BSP for two upcoming Lok Sabha by-elections in UP is evidence of the fear factor sweeping the non-BJP parties. Unless the BJP can keep the other side divided with smart tactics and ‘lollipops’, it looks like the country is heading into a ‘BJP versus the Rest’ line-up in 2019. That’s the message from the pandemonium in Parliament this past week.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)