2019 Polls Will be a Test Only For Modi, Not the Opposition

Modi supporters could also say that India is not safe without him. This means that such an atmosphere of terror will be created that people may end up voting for Modi out of fear.

(Photo: The Quint)

Ever since Opposition leaders have come together in Karnataka, a new slogan has been raised, a new statement is being thrown around. The BJP and its beloved journalists, anchors, editors have started saying that there is no alternative leader to Modi ji – that the Opposition has no one leader who is equal to him.

No one has his charisma, or his popularity, they say. So, how will the Opposition forces fight without a general?

And since they "don’t have a leader", how is the public to trust them? Why would anyone waste their vote on them? Supporters say the opposition has no chance at all in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Systematic Attack on Democracy

It cannot be argued that Modi supporters are an enthusiastic bunch. They want to keep Modi ji’s "divinity" intact at all cost. It’s like Jai from Sholay. Veeru may have had a number of flaws, but Jai always has only good things to say about him when mausa ji asks.

So, don’t condemn the arguments of Modi supporters. In the coming days, this discourse will only grow more bitter. There will be attempts to elevate Modi ji to a god-like status, and simultaneously reduce his opponents to vermin.

Modi supporters could also say that India is not safe without him. This means that such an atmosphere of terror will be created that people will end up voting for Modi out of fear.

We hope journalists will present the truth so as to equip voters with the facts they need to make the right decisions. The reality is that the newfound Opposition unity has shaken up the BJP camp. They are nervous. The crisis is growing for Modi ji. If the entire Opposition decides to have just one opponent against the BJP in every constituency, then Modi ji can easily lose in 2019.

A United Opposition, At Last

In 2014, Modi was new to national politics. Using the Gujarat model reference, he had convinced the people that despite being Hindutvavadi, he was not reactionary like other Sanghi leaders; he was a futurist.

He projected himself as a leader who wasn’t conservative or a hate peddler like other Sanghi leaders. He claimed that he was progressive and that his ideas for the country were global – that he was a modernist despite being Hindutvavadi.

But in four years, this bubble has burst. No development has taken place in the country. Instead, the country has gone back to the dark ages.

In 2014, Modi had a lot to offer to the people. For 2019, he doesn’t seem to have anything so far. Right now, the Modi brand is stuck and a trust crisis is looming. In this situation, it is doubtful that Modi will be able to repeat the 2014 effect in 2019.

Secondly, in 2014, the Opposition was scattered. Everyone was fighting from their own forts. They had no idea how strong and dangerous the opponent was. They all fought separately, and so, they were all defeated. Some here, others there; some lost a head, others a leg. Some even lost their lives. The result was that in Uttar Pradesh alone, the BJP won 73 seats with Apna Dal. Mayawati didn’t even manage a single seat.

‘Brand Modi’ Needs a Makeover

The Karnataka elections have shown that the Opposition must unite in order to win. If caste politics is a reality in the country, then a caste alliance can easily be converted into votes. If Mayawati and Akhilesh join hands in UP, then the BJP is bound to lose half its seats there, with our without Modi.

This worry is eating away at Modi supporters. Similarly, if Congress and Mayawati come together in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, then it will become difficult for BJP to save its strongholds. Similar scenes will ensue if the Congress and NCP come together in Maharashtra, where the Shiv Sena is already revolting against the BJP.

So, where will the Modi brand work then?

A question for the Modi-supporting journalists: Have you forgotten 2004? At that time, Atal ji stood strong. He had to his advantage the powerful Advani, and the tact of Pramod Mahajan and George Fernandes. But the BJP lost.

The party thought it impossible. Before them was Sonia Gandhi, a ‘foreigner’, who was new to politics. In 2004, voters did not see if anyone was up against Atal Bihari Vajpayee. They decided that Vajpayee hadn’t fulfilled his promises; that he had lied to the people. And so, the government was ousted from power. Modi’s people need to understand that 2019 is not a test for the Opposition. Modi ji will have to take the test himself. He will be held accountable.

Modi Needs to Realise that the People Can’t be Fooled

Sir, did prices come down? Did we get employment? Are women safe? Was Pakistan beaten? Has terrorism been eradicated? Without the right answers to these questions, the voters will also turn their backs, like they did on Vajpayee.

The 2019 election will revolve around Modi. People will either come out to elect him back to office, or to oust him. No one will look at who is on the other side. 

In 1977, people came out to get rid of Indira Gandhi. Raj Narain had defeated Indira Gandhi. And Sanjay Gandhi had also lost. Then in 1980, when the people came out to get rid of the Janta Party, the Janta Parivar was decimated. In anger, they voted back the same Indira Gandhi whom they had ousted only three years earlier. Modi supporters and journalists need to make sure they aren’t being delusional.

You never know when achhe din (good days) can turn into bure din (bad days). Modi ji knows this too. His recent trips to Russia and China aren’t just coincidence. Maybe he is hunting for a plank that he can use to retain his throne in 2019.

That said, whether the united Opposition is able to work its magic or not, Modi will only be able to woo the crowds if he manages to do something worth selling in 2019.

(The writer is an author and spokesperson of AAP. He can be reached at @ashutosh83B.This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quintneither endorses nor is responsible for the same. This piece was originally published on Quint Hindi and has been translated from the Hindi by Mariam Shaheen.)