Meghalaya Hung Verdict Predictable: NPP, Cong Hold the Last Straw

There was never any doubt that we would vote a hung Assembly. That has been the norm, writes Patricia Mukhim.

Mukul Sangma (right) and Conrad Sangma.

(Photo: Ankita Das / Altered by The Quint)

The election results in Meghalaya did not spring big surprises of the kind that rocked Tripura. In fact, pollsters in Meghalaya had predicted a week ago the results we see today with a very tiny margin of error. In Meghalaya, it was about whether the next government will be Congress-led or NPP-led.

There was never any doubt that we would vote a hung Assembly. That has been the norm. If any party got an absolute majority, it would have been quite a shocker for us. So, we have the final tally at Congress – 21, National Peoples’ Party (NPP) – 19, BJP – two, with the regional parties among them sharing 15 seats and Independents with three seats.

Vote for BJP = Vote Against Religious Freedom

The only time that the people of Meghalaya gave the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) 32 out of 60 seats was in the first election after the state was carved out of Assam. That happened because it was the APHLC that led the statehood movement. But by the next election, the Congress succeeded in splintering the regional forces.

The only surprise in Meghalaya is the emergence of the National People’s Party (NPP) founded by PA Sangma in 2013 before the Presidential elections. In the last Assembly (2013), the NPP had only two MLAs. Now they have 19. This is quite an achievement and it shows that people in Meghalaya are looking for a change.

Meghalaya is the only state that has bucked the trend and given the BJP only two MLAs. Social media played a dominant role in creating a fear psychosis among voters that a vote for the BJP would mean a vote against freedom of religion (Christianity) and a vote that would give the reins to the Hindutva party to dictate the food habits of the beef eating tribes here.

Videos of churches being vandalised and priests and nuns being attacked were circulated among church circles. Not to mention, the BJP’s only Christian face, Tourism Minister KJ Alphons, queered the pith for the BJP some more when he dangled a Rs 70 crore carrot before the churches, saying that they could give themselves a face-lift and become tourist destinations.

The churches felt they were being bought and leaders of two churches declined the assistance upfront.

Regional Parties Gang up Against Congress

In the meantime, hectic parleys are on by the NPP and Congress to form a government with the help of the regional parties and Independents. The Congress party has despatched Ahmed Patel, Mukul Wasnik and others to Shillong to make sure that it forms the government.

Not to be left behind is Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s ‘hatchet man’, who is known for his political manoeuvrings and the man behind the formation of the BJP government in Manipur.

It will be a game of thrones hitherto unseen. Earlier, there was only one national party – the Congress – that sent its men with suitcases here for government formation. Regional party MLAs would defect in bulk or would support a Congress-led government.

Now the Congress has a formidable competitor in the BJP, which is ruthless in its political machinations. The NPP with 19 seats already has the tacit support of the BJP. With the regional parties and Independents, it would not be difficult for the NPP-BJP combine to cobble up a coalition.

The regional parties, on their part, have converged on one plank – to defeat the Congress. For a long time they have battled the baggage of being Team B of the Congress. This time they were accused of being in league with anti-Christian forces, meaning the BJP-NPP.

But the UDP has stated that it would rather align with the NPP, which has no history of corruption as yet.

Discontent With Mukul Sangma

If the UDP-HSPDP aligns with the Congress, they will have to carry the baggage of corruption which the last MUA government was tainted with, and which the UDP-HSPDP vociferously attacked during the campaign. Moreover, the UDP and HSPDP are mainly based in Khasi and Jaintia Hills, and the chief ministerial candidate projected by the NPP would tilt the balance in favour of this coalition.

If the Congress forms a government, it is almost sure that Mukul Sangma will be in the driving seat and there are too many who are unhappy with his autocratic style of functioning. The problem is whether this coalition comprising a bunch of disparate forces will be able to provide stability to Meghalaya. Political stability has a mirage in Meghalaya. It was only in the last five years that the government under Mukul Sangma had smooth sailing.

But there were other problems that beset the state. Education and health sectors are in the doldrums. The state has no policy for key areas of human development such as education, health, tourism, mining, communication, information technology, sports and youth affairs.

The National Green Tribunal banned coal mining in the state in 2014 because there was no mining policy. Three years down, the Congress has not been able to come up with a mining policy. This was an election issue in the coal mining areas of Jaintia Hills and West Khasi Hills. The BJP’s manifesto’s principal point was to lift the ban on coal mining.

Expect ‘Horse-Trading’ to be at Its Peak

Meanwhile, a Congress stalwart from Delhi was photographed with a piece of paper detailing the party’s formula for government formation after taking the regional parties and Independents with them. But with Dr Mukul Sangma in the driving seat, it is doubtful that the potential partners would agree to the proposal. Mukul Sangma was accused of running a presidential form of government where decisions in key departments were taken in his office.

This was the reason why several Congressmen left the party before the elections and joined the NPP. These MLAs would surely want the NPP to be in the driving seat now that the goal is within touching distance.

And now as the NPP and Congress both grasp at straws to form the government, horse trading will be at its peak, and come Monday, 5 March, we should be having the two major parties parading their flock before the governor.

(The writer is the Editor of The Shillong Times and former member of NSAB. She can be reached @meipat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)